The short version

Bob Hoffman predicted on April 11, 2025: ““According to the World Federation of Advertisers, in 2025 ad fraud may become the second largest source of criminal income in the world after drug trafficking,”” Verdict: Still evolving. As of August 23, 2026, there is no widely accepted, empirically documented ranking of “sources of criminal income” that confirms ad fraud as the…

Prediction by

Bob Hoffman

On April 11, 2025

““According to the World Federation of Advertisers, in 2025 ad fraud may become the second largest source of criminal income in the world after drug trafficking,””

Follow-up

As of August 23, 2026, there is no widely accepted, empirically documented ranking of “sources of criminal income” that confirms ad fraud as the second-largest category globally. While ad fraud continues to be a very large and growing criminal revenue source (tens of billions annually), consistent with Hoffman’s qualitative warning that it is approaching the top tier, it is not quantitatively confirmed as the second-largest overall. The prediction is evolving and partially supported directionally.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.