— The ledger —
Every filed receipt, sortable by status and category. Not a pass/fail scoreboard — a record of who called what, with the proof attached.
Status
Category
— Filed —
RECEIPT #CRAMER
MAR 11, 2008
PREDICTION BY
Jim Cramer“Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out. ... Bear Stearns is not in trouble.”
FOLLOW-UP
Cramer told a viewer on March 11, 2008 that Bear Stearns was fine. Five days later JPMorgan acquired Bear for $2/share in a Fed-backed fire sale. Iconic bad call.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CNBCRECEIPT #CRAMER
OCT 27, 2022
PREDICTION BY
Jim Cramer“I trusted this management team. That was ill-advised.”
FOLLOW-UP
Cramer declared Meta uninvestable at ~$97/share in Oct 2022. Stock then ran from ~$90 to over $700 by 2024 — one of the great recoveries of the decade. Inverse-Cramer at its purest.
RECEIPT #KURZWE
JAN 01, 1990
PREDICTION BY
Ray KurzweilParaphrase: By 1998, a computer will defeat the world chess champion.
FOLLOW-UP
Kurzweil predicted in 1990 a computer would beat the world chess champion by 1998. Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov in May 1997 — a year ahead of schedule.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
MIT PressEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #LECUN-
FEB 04, 2023
PREDICTION BY
Yann LeCun“Auto-Regressive LLMs are doomed. They cannot be made factual and non-toxic.”
FOLLOW-UP
LeCun called autoregressive LLMs 'doomed' in early 2023. Three years later GPT-5, Claude 4, and Gemini 3 — all autoregressive — power most production AI. Hallucinations dropped sharply with RLHF and tool use.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
X (Twitter)EVIDENCE
RECEIPT #HINTON
NOV 24, 2016
PREDICTION BY
Geoffrey Hinton“People should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”
FOLLOW-UP
Hinton said in late 2016 radiologists would be obsolete within 5 years. Nearly a decade later radiologist demand is at all-time highs; AI augments but has not replaced them.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Creative Destruction LabEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #HWANG-
OCT 13, 2020
PREDICTION BY
Tim HwangParaphrase: The online ad market is a bubble that will pop, with consequences for the entire web economy that depends on it.
FOLLOW-UP
Hwang's 2020 thesis: programmatic ads = subprime mortgages. ATT (2021), cookie deprecation, MFA-site exposés, and the open-web display crash partially validated it — but the ad market grew rather than imploded, propped up by retail-media and walled gardens.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
FSG OriginalsEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #THOMPS
JAN 22, 2020
PREDICTION BY
Ben Thompson“In other words, today’s cloud and mobile companies — Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google — may very well be the GM, Ford, and Chrysler of the 21st century.”
FOLLOW-UP
Thompson's 'End of the Beginning' thesis: cloud + mobile are the substrate, no platform shift coming. Five years on, the FAANGs only consolidated power; AI emerged as a layer ON TOP of cloud (OpenAI/Anthropic on Azure/AWS), exactly as he framed it.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
StratecheryEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #LECUN-
FEB 04, 2023
PREDICTION BY
Yann LeCun“On the highway towards Human-Level AI, Large Language Model is an off-ramp.”
FOLLOW-UP
LeCun argued LLMs alone won't reach AGI and pushed JEPA/world-models. By 2026 frontier labs increasingly added world-models, video, and reasoning beyond pure next-token prediction — partial vindication. Pure-LLM scaling kept producing gains he downplayed.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
X (Twitter)EVIDENCE
RECEIPT #KURZWE
JAN 01, 1999
PREDICTION BY
Ray KurzweilParaphrase: By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence and pass the Turing test.
FOLLOW-UP
By May 2026, computers had not yet achieved human-level intelligence or passed the Turing test, as confirmed by Kurzweil himself and expert consensus on current AI models. However, with three years remaining in the prediction's timeframe and Kurzweil reaffirming the 2029 target, the situation is classified as evolving.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
VikingRECEIPT #AARON-
DEC 02, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Aaron GoldmanParaphrase: OpenAI will launch ads in 2026.
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. As of mid-2026 OpenAI has not formally launched a paid-ads product, though signals (sponsored answers, partner integrations) keep building. Verdict to be revisited at year-end 2026.
RECEIPT #AARON-
AUG 09, 2010
PREDICTION BY
Aaron Goldman“In the coming years, we'll see a shift in focus towards applications that can handle complicated tasks based on our stated intent — eg, planning a trip to Italy.”
FOLLOW-UP
In 2010, Goldman predicted a shift from search results toward applications that handle complex tasks from stated intent, using trip planning as his example. Google's AI Mode now plans itineraries and has begun rolling out hotel booking within the conversational flow. Partner hotels and booking platforms remain the merchants, and flights can still send users to airline or travel sites; this supports the directional prediction, not fully autonomous end-to-end travel booking.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Googley Lessons Learned, Chapter 21RECEIPT #AARON-
MAY 03, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Aaron GoldmanParaphrase: The Metaverse will make a comeback.
FOLLOW-UP
Contrarian take post-Apple Vision Pro reset. Tracking Meta Reality Labs revenue, Vision Pro shipments, and consumer-spatial app adoption.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Kentucky Derby / Metaverse post (LinkedIn)RECEIPT #AARON-
AUG 08, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Aaron GoldmanParaphrase: Ads on ChatGPT will become CPA.
FOLLOW-UP
Specific, falsifiable call about pricing model. Will be evaluated when OpenAI or another major LLM platform formally launches an ads product and discloses pricing structure.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AI agents pave the path to CPA ads (LinkedIn)RECEIPT #AARON-
JAN 03, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Aaron Goldman“This will be the last decade of growth for paid search.”
FOLLOW-UP
Goldman predicted that the 2020s would be paid search advertising's last decade of growth. EMARKETER's 2026 forecast still has search ad spending rising, but growth is slowing and search's share of digital ad spending is declining. The decade is not over, so the long-horizon call remains unresolved.
RECEIPT #KURZWE
SEP 22, 2005
PREDICTION BY
Ray Kurzweil“I set the date for the Singularity — representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability — as 2045.”
FOLLOW-UP
2045 deadline still 19 years out. Compute and AI capability gains 2023–2026 broadly track the exponential thesis; final verdict by 2045.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
VikingEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #KAWAJA
NOV 14, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Terry Kawaja“2025 is going to be an excellent year for digital advertising. ... All of these things are leading to a much stronger 2025.”
FOLLOW-UP
The prediction came true as digital ad spending surged past $750 billion worldwide in 2025, confirmed by multiple reports (eMarketer, Oberlo, Dentsu), indicating significant growth. M&A activity also showed a rebound, as noted by IAB's outlook.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Beet.TVRECEIPT #GALLOW
JAN 11, 2019
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“Amazon begins a march toward becoming the most valuable healthcare company in the world. ... Upon introduction of the service, or maybe even in the press release describing the initiative, Amazon records the greatest single-day appreciation (in value) of any company in history.”
FOLLOW-UP
Amazon bought PillPack (2018) and One Medical ($3.9B, 2022) and launched Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Clinic — but is nowhere near the most valuable healthcare company. UNH, LLY, and JNJ remain dominant.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
No Mercy / No MaliceRECEIPT #KINT-G
MAY 21, 2020
PREDICTION BY
Jason Kint“The Google antitrust ship has set its course.”
FOLLOW-UP
DOJ sued Google over search (Oct 2020) and adtech (Jan 2023); both have produced rulings against Google (search monopoly Aug 2024; adtech monopoly Apr 2025).
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Digital Content NextRECEIPT #KAWAJA
MAY 19, 2014
PREDICTION BY
Terry Kawaja“The recent flurry of media M&A activities, including the AT&T DirecTV deal, means that the big players are lining up their assets in advance of the inevitable convergence of TV and digital video.”
FOLLOW-UP
AT&T-DirecTV closed 2015; Disney-Fox 2019; WarnerMedia-Discovery 2022; converged TV/CTV is now the dominant ad-buying narrative. Kawaja called the structural arc a decade early.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Beet.TVRECEIPT #WIESER
JUL 31, 2017
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Pivotal Research lowers its rating for Facebook to sell from hold. The firm says the company is facing decelerating growth and that its ad load on the core News Feed is at saturation.”
FOLLOW-UP
Wieser was early — Facebook stock kept rallying through Jan 2018 before the Cambridge Analytica drop. The ad-load saturation thesis was vindicated in 2022 when growth turned negative for the first time.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CNBCRECEIPT #WIESER
NOV 26, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Brian WieserParaphrase: 2019 U.S. ad spending will grow 4.0%, up from a prior 3.5% forecast.
FOLLOW-UP
Wieser raised his 2019 U.S. ad growth forecast to 4.0%. The direction was right but the number was too low: GroupM put 2019 U.S. ad growth at 6.2% ($244 billion), the fastest since 2000.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
MediaPostRECEIPT #GALLOW
JAN 11, 2019
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“Snap is the walking dead. It will be cut in half … again.”
FOLLOW-UP
Snap stock fell from ~$6 in Jan 2019 to recover briefly above $80 in 2021, then crashed back to single digits by 2022. Long-run thesis correct but the immediate 2019 call was wrong (it doubled).
ORIGINAL SOURCE
No Mercy / No MaliceEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #GALLOW
JAN 11, 2019
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“Amazon becomes one of the five largest media firms by the end of 2020.”
FOLLOW-UP
Amazon Ads hit ~$21B in 2020 and ~$31B in 2021 — top 4 globally by ad revenue, behind only Google, Meta, and Alibaba.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
No Mercy / No MaliceEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #THOMPS
JUL 21, 2015
PREDICTION BY
Ben Thompson“The best distributors/aggregators/market-makers win by providing the best experience, which earns them the most consumers/users, which attracts the most suppliers, which enhances the user experience in a virtuous cycle.”
FOLLOW-UP
Aggregation Theory became the canonical framework for understanding platform dominance — vindicated by every subsequent FAANG earnings cycle and now cited in DOJ/FTC antitrust filings.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
StratecheryRECEIPT #SEUFER
JAN 04, 2021
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“I believe that Apple's upcoming iOS privacy changes will significantly harm Facebook's revenue, causing a roughly 7% revenue impairment in Q2 2021 in the base case scenario.”
FOLLOW-UP
Meta itself estimated ATT cost it ~$10B in 2022 (~8% of ad revenue), validating Seufert's base case almost exactly — and he called it 9 months before ATT even rolled out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev MemoEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #BRINKE
MAY 07, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Scott Brinker“The myth of martech consolidation is dead. ... Martech is a long tail with a fat head.”
FOLLOW-UP
Martech landscape grew from 6,829 (2018) to 14,106 (2024) — more than doubled. Long-tail growth has outpaced consolidation every single year since.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
chiefmartecRECEIPT #KAWAJA
JUN 23, 2014
PREDICTION BY
Terry KawajaParaphrase: Fragmentation happens, so get used to it.
FOLLOW-UP
Fragmentation continued exactly as Kawaja predicted: the LUMAscapes kept growing (martech alone hit 14,106 logos in 2024), and the consolidation buyers were told to stop waiting for never arrived at the long-tail level.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Beet.TV (Cannes Lions)RECEIPT #ANDREE
AUG 20, 2011
PREDICTION BY
Marc Andreessen“Health care and education, in my view, are next up for fundamental software-based transformation… both are primed for tipping by great new software-centric entrepreneurs.”
FOLLOW-UP
Telehealth and edtech exploded post-2020 (Teladoc, Coursera, Duolingo IPOs), but 'fundamental transformation' of US healthcare and K-12 remains uneven.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
a16z / WSJEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #ANDREE
AUG 20, 2011
PREDICTION BY
Marc Andreessen“The creation of software-powered driverless cars is already under way at Google and the major car companies.”
FOLLOW-UP
Waymo (née Google self-driving) now runs paid driverless rides in multiple US cities by 2024-2025, but 'major car companies' have largely retreated (Cruise shutdown).
ORIGINAL SOURCE
a16z / WSJRECEIPT #ANDREE
AUG 20, 2011
PREDICTION BY
Marc Andreessen“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones, giving every individual with such a phone instant access to the full power of the Internet, every moment of every day.”
FOLLOW-UP
Smartphone users hit ~5B by 2022 per GSMA Intelligence — landed essentially on schedule.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
a16z / WSJEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #PG-LOT
OCT 01, 2007
PREDICTION BY
Paul Graham“My first prediction about the future of web startups is pretty straightforward: there will be a lot of them. When starting a startup was expensive, you had to get the permission of investors to do it. Now the only threshold is courage.”
FOLLOW-UP
Global startup formation exploded 2010s-2020s; YC alone went from ~40 cos/batch in 2007 to 200+/batch by 2021.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
paulgraham.comEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #PG-STA
OCT 01, 2007
PREDICTION BY
Paul Graham“I think angel rounds will start to be done mostly with standardized agreements.”
FOLLOW-UP
YC's SAFE (2013) and standardized convertible notes became the default for angel/seed rounds globally.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
paulgraham.comEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #PG-ACQ
OCT 01, 2007
PREDICTION BY
Paul Graham“As the volume of startups increases, big companies will start to develop standardized procedures that make acquisitions little more work than hiring someone.”
FOLLOW-UP
Acqui-hires became a recognized category through the 2010s; FAANG ran near-continuous tuck-in M&A pipelines.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
paulgraham.comRECEIPT #BROOKS
JAN 01, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Rodney Brooks“First driverless 'taxi' service in a major US city, with dedicated pick up and drop off points, and restrictions on weather and time of day. NET 2022.”
FOLLOW-UP
Waymo One launched paid driverless service in Phoenix in 2020 with geofence + weather restrictions — landed before his 'no earlier than 2022' floor.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
rodneybrooks.comRECEIPT #BROOKS
JAN 01, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Rodney Brooks“There will be no commercially viable passenger carrying systems for hyperloop within that time frame [32 years from 2018].”
FOLLOW-UP
Hyperloop One shut down November 2023; Virgin Hyperloop pivoted away from passengers. Brooks looking prescient less than 6 years in.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
rodneybrooks.comRECEIPT #BROOKS
JAN 01, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Rodney Brooks“A flying car can be purchased by any US resident if they have enough money. NET 2036. There is a real possibility that this will not happen at all by 2050.”
FOLLOW-UP
Flying cars are now available for purchase, partially fulfilling the prediction, but they are not yet approved for US residents and require licenses, falling short of being purchasable by 'any US resident' as envisioned.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
rodneybrooks.comRECEIPT #DAVID-
APR 16, 2013
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“I'm saying this for the third time. Facebook will do search. And [more importantly] they'll do it well.”
FOLLOW-UP
Called Apr 16, 2013. Graph Search itself flopped and was effectively retired by 2019, but the underlying claim — that Facebook would build serious search/discovery products — was vindicated by Reels search, AI-assisted feed ranking, and Meta AI's in-app search now serving billions of queries. Right thesis, wrong product vehicle.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JUL 19, 2012
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“Is it conceivable that Facebook knew/knows that the ~$4b desktop ad business was not the future of the company and began to focus its resources on sponsored stories/mobile ads that do show up in mobile feeds and can therefore be monetized (and apparently more effectively than their desktop counterparts)? You bet it is… implying that the company has no business model is extremely shortsighted.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed Jul 19, 2012 — two months after the FB IPO flop, with consensus calling Facebook structurally unmonetizable on mobile. Mobile went from ~14% of FB ad revenue in Q2 2012 to ~49% one year later and >80% by 2015; FB stock 4x'd by 2015. The "no mobile business model" thesis was definitively wrong, exactly as Levy argued.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (porchdog.co)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JUL 05, 2011
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“The NASDAQ is going to 5K again as investors bid up valuations of companies participating in this expansion and financials cash in on the boom.”
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jul 5, 2011 (NASDAQ ~2,800). The index reclaimed its dot-com peak and crossed 5,000 on March 2, 2015 — almost exactly the 5-year cycle Levy described — driven by the social/mobile/cloud names he flagged.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JUL 05, 2011
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“Soon everyone will have a smart phone with a data plan… 80% of the 70% that don't have data plans get plans. That means over 130 million new data plans — at $30/month that's almost $50 billion in incremental revenue per year to the carriers.”
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jul 5, 2011 with US smartphone penetration ~30%. Pew put US smartphone ownership at 81% by 2019 and ~90% by 2024; effectively all activated US lines now carry data plans, and US wireless service revenue rose roughly $40–50B over the decade — squarely in the order of magnitude Levy modeled.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JUL 05, 2011
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“Forrester wrote a report in June 2011 forecasting that today's 50 million or so "personal cloud" users will grow to almost 200 million by 2016 driving $12 billion in annual revenue by then… So whatever number you come up with for the personal cloud stuff — double it.”
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jul 5, 2011. By 2016 Dropbox alone had 500M+ registered users and Google Drive 800M+; iCloud, OneDrive, and Google Photos each crossed the hundreds of millions. Personal-cloud user counts blew well past Forrester's 200M estimate, validating Levy's "double it" call.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 07, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“The riskier call: enterprises will hit an adoption tipping point. Why? Because the ROI is too hard to ignore.”
FOLLOW-UP
Levy forecast an enterprise AI adoption tipping point in 2026. McKinsey's November 2025 baseline survey found 88% of respondents reported regular AI use in at least one business function, but only about one-third said their organizations had begun scaling AI across the enterprise. That is a baseline, not evidence that the 2026 tipping point has occurred. The outcome remains open pending a comparable 2026 measure.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 07, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“If 2025 was the Year of the GPU Cloud IPO(s), then 2026 will be the Year of Agentic AI… agentic systems don't just generate more tokens; they generate orders of magnitude more inference events.”
FOLLOW-UP
Levy called 2026 the Year of Agentic AI and predicted that agentic systems would produce orders of magnitude more inference events. The year is still underway. This receipt has no comparable measured event-count series to establish the claimed magnitude, so the outcome remains open.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
APR 30, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“The question wasn't whether OpenAI bought too much compute; it was whether they can generate enough revenue to outrun what they've already committed to. Answer: yep.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed Apr 30, 2026. Levy argues OpenAI's ~$123B/yr compute commitment can be outrun by exploding workflow volume and rising monetization mix. Outcome will hinge on 2026–2028 ARR vs. capex realization — track against OpenAI revenue disclosures and capex actuals.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 07, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“In 2026, that pressure will push inference workloads outward into CDNs, edge networks, purpose-built inference platforms, on-prem environments, and on-device.”
FOLLOW-UP
Levy predicts that 2026 will push inference workloads from centralized cloud regions toward CDNs, edge networks, specialist platforms, on-premises systems, and devices. Cloudflare offers Workers AI on its global network, with models running close to users in 200+ cities. That product is directional evidence of edge capacity, not a measurement that inference workloads have shifted at the scale Levy forecast. The 2026 outcome remains open.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 06, 2025
PREDICTION BY
David LevyParaphrase: Welcome to the Year of the GPU Cloud IPO(s): predicting CoreWeave's IPO and imminent valuation explosion ushering in an AI-related IPO boom.
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jan 6, 2025. CoreWeave IPO'd in March 2025 and ~doubled to ~$80 by year-end; NBIS tripled; APLD/BTBT pivoted to GPU cloud branding; Lambda and Crusoe lined up bankers. Levy's own 2026 retrospective documents the chain of confirmations.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #ADITYA
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Aditya Jain“Sundep on this like timeline wise what we are seeing with clients is you can generate uplift within 15 to 30 days at max and that's the timelines I think every marketer should get used to in terms of how they're seeing um like just I think any marketing channel today just because of how quickly these platforms update like Google used to release an update once every year then once every six months and now they release an update almost every couple of weeks and these AI search channels change a lot quicker. So that's the type of kind of core update cycle you should be focusing on.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #ADITYA
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Aditya Jain“I think traditional PR needs to be better guided with sources that are being cited on each of these channels. So I think traditional PR focuses on your typical large publishers like a Forbes and uh um and Times magazine etc. What we're actually seeing is these channels pick up a lot more unique individuals that are either could even be running substacks or like a 100,000 subscriber blogs that are unique to just the particular industry. And that's what we're seeing really play a big role in terms of shaping LLM opinion. So I think PR continues to be important. It's a rewrite of the strategy in terms of what PR you focus on and how you attribute success for that PR where it's just not about getting it listed on a high visibility um high brand name channel.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #ADITYA
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Aditya Jain“And that dominance of this type of content will increase. And we saw this uptake be driven first with a lot of kind of self-help and kind of guides where you see a lot of YouTube content already start flooding the market where Google led the charge. Chad GPT followed suit very quickly. Um, and we're going to see that adoption definitely scale up.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #COLIN-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Colin Jeavons“I think invisible interfaces are going to be huge. conversational commerce is going to be huge.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #MIKE-M
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Mike Montague“There are tools that will change your website based on the person viewing it. And it's not one version or a 100 versions. It's a custom version for each person who visits your website and it it's rewriting the text on the page as they get information about who's doing it and what they're viewing. So that technology exists and is available now. Same thing with advertising. There are AI tools and I've interviewed the people on my podcast um and I can pull up some of these names. I have them bookmarked over here later, David. But, um, they will change the ads, right, based on who's viewing it and adding additional context or rewriting stuff. And I think we're going to see um you can now make your own version of like the the Simpsons and and stuff like that of like if you don't like this episode, I think we're going to see a a Black Mirror Netflix episode where you're going to be in it or your city and like if you and I watch the same episode, we're going to see different things because everything is going to be a completely custom piece of content.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #COLIN-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Colin Jeavons“But one thing's for sure is there will always be, I believe, a need of creative skill in the production of content.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #COLIN-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Colin Jeavons“Well, now they will be able to do that at extremely low cost where none of them was disrupted, none of them was put out of out of either cost or um you know uh time and but it will still require very talented people to decide on which one is going to resonate with the consumer or not. And will they use AI engines and AI data to actually get the right accurate information? Will they use AI surveys to understand their consumers are actually behaving the way they want? I think they will. But there will still be need of somebody actually saying yes to this smiling cat and no to this gorilla.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #COLIN-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Colin Jeavons“But there's no question that a well-intentioned influencer with high integrity and testing the products they recommend is going to drive higher sales and conversions of those products than someone that's just, you know, switching left on every product that they put in place. But you know back to the bottom line the bottom line is are consumers going to like it? Will they already do and you know will they consume more of it? I think will and will they end up buying more products? I think they will.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #COLIN-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Colin Jeavons“So much so that I think that in the western shopping market you'll have you know above a 30% increase in total revenue spent.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #COLIN-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Colin Jeavons“And that is with the use of certainly video AI which you know which I think is an interesting you know positive and negative um uh addition to the content creation world. you're going to have a lot of products um you know presented by current influencers to their follower group highlighting things they like things they they think are worth having and is that going to get do a positive impact to selling more products or not. Mhm. And to me I think that vertical is going to have a significant increase in spend.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #TOM-RI
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Tom Riordan“I would absolutely argue that I think some companies like Zapier are going to be less relevant because this is all just being done through these other MCPs.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #TOM-RI
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Tom Riordan“And our hope is that customers will buy more in in total as a result of lowering our pricing. So I think you're totally right. This first order effect that you feel isn't that exciting. It's all the all the kind of second order effects you got to jump into.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #CHARLE
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Charles Manning“I think over time they're going to want to do stuff that's on prem and um there's just such a demand for hardware that it's super expensive and I think that'll go down over time and I think I think we're going to see in our in all of all of industries more decentralized distributed models not these centralized online models and that's why we're taking the approach that we're taking. We think over time there's a myriad of models that start to come together across workflows and testing is awesome.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #CHARLE
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Charles Manning“I think there's one other one other movement I think is going to happen and I'm hearing a lot about this just in the last week is this notion of workflow steps as an extension of human workflows.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
