We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    Adtech

    19 receipts tracked • 78% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    19 receipts on Adtech

    Browse all →

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    JAN 23, 2023

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian O'Kelley
    “"We need to align these frameworks in the next six to nine months - no later than the end of 2023 - so we can incorporate them into the fabric of the industry and start driving substantial reduction. ... I believe there is a clear pathway to aligning on a single framework in this timeframe."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    No single framework arrived by the end of 2023 - or since. GARM and Ad Net Zero's Global Media Sustainability Framework only appeared as a draft at Cannes in June 2024, and GARM itself was dissolved two months later after the X lawsuit, leaving stewardship with Ad Net Zero and the landscape still fragmented (Digiday, August 2024).

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    BOK on Ads
    adtechadvertising-industry

    RECEIPT #CORY-T

    NOV 14, 2018

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Treffiletti
    “"The coming 12 months will see the big tech stacks snatch up their CDP toolsets. ... My prediction is, acquisitions in this space will heat up in Q1 and round out by Q3 2019."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The window came and went quietly: the big stacks (Adobe, Oracle, Salesforce) built rather than bought in 2019. The flagship CDP deal landed a year after his window closed - Twilio's $3.2 billion all-stock acquisition of Segment in October 2020. Direction right, timing wrong - and the timing was the prediction.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    The Media Online
    adtechdataadvertising-industry

    RECEIPT #DAVE-M

    JUL 12, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Dave Morgan
    “Data is not going to define the future of successful TV advertising, any more than it has defined digital advertising... Data is not the new oil.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Partially right. Data-driven buying did come to define TV's growth engine: CTV ad spend reached about $31.8 billion in 2024 (half the size of linear), and 43% of US advertisers were pulling linear budgets into programmatic CTV. But his deeper point aged well: "data as oil" hype deflated under privacy regulation, and creative, context and reach still separate winners from losers.

    connected-tv-ctvadtech

    RECEIPT #CORY-T

    NOV 19, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Treffiletti
    “OpenAI and Anthropic will quickly join the "power players" in digital advertising by further diving into native ad formats. ... They will attract more ad dollars and could easily become part of the top echelon of ad platforms in just a year or two.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Tracking well so far. OpenAI was piloting ads in ChatGPT in the US by March 2026 and expanded the pilot to the UK, Mexico, Brazil, Japan and South Korea by August 2026 (OpenAI). Anthropic has yet to introduce ads. The full call - both joining the "power players" within a year or two - stays open through 2027.

    ai-in-advertisingadtechadvertising-industry

    RECEIPT #PATRIC

    FEB 09, 2020

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Patrick Dolan
    “P4A is working to support the enactment of comprehensive federal regulations to supersede the emerging patchwork of state rules, which cause significant harm to our industry.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Six-plus years on, the US still has no comprehensive federal consumer privacy law, and the patchwork Dolan warned about only grew - Indiana, Kentucky and Rhode Island's comprehensive laws took effect in January 2026 alone (IAPP). The Privacy for America federal push never made it out of Congress.

    privacyadvertising-industryadtech

    RECEIPT #MICHAE

    JAN 28, 2008

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Michael Bassik
    “Search advertising could garner closer to 80 percent [of 2008 online political ad spending - double Borrell Associates' estimate that 50 percent, or $10 million, would go to paid search].”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Bassik called the search skew before the cycle played out - and the whole category outgrew the forecasters. Obama's campaign alone spent about $16 million online, nearly Borrell's $20 million forecast for everyone, and the spend centered on search and list-building: new media director Joe Rospars reported 10-15x ROI on Google ads (ePolitics, Feb 2009).

    advertising-industrysearchadtech

    RECEIPT #CORY-M

    JAN 07, 2025

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Munchbach
    “In 2025, marketing workflows will be transformed by AI. In turn, the way CDPs deliver value will evolve to balance the human element and the automation, the privacy and possibility, and creativity and control.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Landed. By the end of 2025, SAS research ("Marketers and AI: Navigating New Depths") described generative AI as the new status quo for marketing departments worldwide, with leading adopters already moving into agentic AI. AI-assisted workflows went from experiment to default inside the year Munchbach named.

    ai-in-marketingai-in-advertisingadtech

    RECEIPT #MYLES-

    JUN 15, 2022

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Myles Younger
    “CTV is going to look a lot more like programmatic display than anyone in TV is ready for — fragmented inventory, walled-garden measurement, and identity wars.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Validated by 2024: Netflix/Amazon/Disney all running auction-based ad stacks, identity fragmentation forced cross-measurement deals, and CTV upfronts shifted to programmatic guarantees.

    adtechctvmeasurement

    RECEIPT #JAY-FR

    SEP 10, 2019

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jay Friedman
    “The big six holding companies are getting squeezed from both sides — consultancies above, in-housing below — and the next decade will be brutal for anyone not specializing.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Validated: Omnicom-IPG merger announced 2024; WPP, Publicis restructured; Accenture Song became a top-5 agency; in-housing rates rose every year 2019-2024 per ANA.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Digiday
    adtechagenciesmarketing

    RECEIPT #ALLISO

    APR 26, 2021

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Allison Schiff
    “Apple's ATT prompt is going to be a bloodbath for the mobile ad ecosystem — opt-in rates will crater into the teens and Facebook's targeting moat will partially collapse.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Validated: opt-in rates settled around 25%, Meta took ~$10B 2022 revenue hit, mobile attribution rebuilt around SKAdNetwork and probabilistic modeling.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    AdExchanger
    adtechmobileprivacy

    RECEIPT #ANTHON

    AUG 10, 2022

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Anthony Vargas
    “Retail media networks are going to eat search budgets faster than CTV ate TV — every retailer with a loyalty program is now an ad seller.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Validated: RMN spend hit ~$55B by 2024 (eMarketer), Walmart Connect, Kroger Precision, Target Roundel all crossed $1B+ in ad revenue, dozens of mid-market retailers launched networks.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    AdExchanger
    adtechcommerceretail-media

    RECEIPT #RONAN-

    JUL 27, 2022

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ronan Shields
    “Google will delay third-party cookie deprecation again — Privacy Sandbox isn't ready, regulators aren't satisfied, and the adtech industry is nowhere near migrated.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Validated multiple times: Google delayed in 2022, again in 2024, then in July 2024 abandoned forced deprecation entirely in favor of user choice prompts.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Digiday
    adtechgoogleprivacy

    RECEIPT #SHIELD

    SEP 15, 2020

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Mike Shields
    “The big agency holding companies are in for a brutal decade. Clients are taking media in-house, consultancies are eating strategy, and the holdcos haven't built a real answer.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Shields called the holdco squeeze in 2020. WPP, Publicis, IPG all underperformed; Omnicom-IPG merged in 2024 and global headcount cuts hit every holdco through 2025.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Next in Marketing
    adtechmarketing-ads

    RECEIPT #FISCHE

    MAR 29, 2022

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Sara Fischer
    “Retail media networks are about to become the third big wave of digital advertising, after search and social.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Fischer called retail media the "third wave" in early 2022. By 2025 retail media surpassed $60B in US ad spend, third-largest channel after search and social, exactly as forecast.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Axios
    adtechmarketing-adsretail-media

    RECEIPT #PAPARO

    JUN 21, 2022

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    “Independent adtech is in for a brutal consolidation. Most of the LUMAscape mid-tier won't exist in three years.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Paparo called the SSP/DSP shakeout. By 2025: Magnite-SpotX consolidation, Sharethrough-District M, IAS-Publica, Outbrain-Teads, plus dozens of mid-tier shutdowns. Confirmed.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Marketecture
    adtechmarketing-ads

    RECEIPT #PERLOF

    MAY 02, 2023

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Catherine Perloff
    “Amazon Ads is on track to be the third pillar of digital advertising and is squeezing both Google and Meta for budget.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Perloff's 2023 call. Amazon ad revenue hit $56B in 2024, surpassing all linear TV; clearly the #3 digital ad platform behind Google and Meta.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Adweek

    EVIDENCE

    adtechmarketing-adsretail-media

    RECEIPT #MANDES

    JUN 24, 2021

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Joe Mandese
    “Despite all the headlines, the death of the cookie will be delayed, deferred, and ultimately fudged. The industry isn't ready and Google knows it.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Mandese called the cookie-death delay loop in 2021. Google delayed deprecation in 2021, again in 2022, again in 2024, and in July 2024 abandoned forced deprecation entirely. Vindicated repeatedly.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    MediaPost
    adtechmarketing-adsprivacy

    RECEIPT #HWANG-

    OCT 13, 2020

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Tim Hwang
    “The online ad market is a bubble that will pop, with consequences for the entire web economy that depends on it.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Hwang's 2020 thesis: programmatic ads = subprime mortgages. ATT (2021), cookie deprecation, MFA-site exposés, and the open-web display crash partially validated it — but the ad market grew rather than imploded, propped up by retail-media and walled gardens.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    FSG Originals
    adtechmarketing-ads

    RECEIPT #THOMPS

    APR 26, 2021

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ben Thompson
    “Apple's ATT will accelerate the shift to first-party data and benefit the largest platforms with logged-in users — Facebook included, eventually.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Thompson predicted ATT would ultimately strengthen the biggest logged-in platforms despite short-term Meta pain. Confirmed: Meta rebuilt its ad stack with AI (Andromeda, Advantage+) and posted record revenue 2023–25, while small advertisers and the open web absorbed the damage.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Stratechery

    EVIDENCE

    adtechmarketing-ads