— Topic —
5 receipts tracked
— Filed —
RECEIPT #AARON-
JAN 03, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Aaron Goldman“This will be the last decade of growth for paid search.”
FOLLOW-UP
Bold long-horizon call. Google search is being reshaped by AI Overviews and agentic browsing; paid-search growth has begun to flatten in some categories. Tracking quarterly Google ad revenue and share-of-search shifts.
RECEIPT #GARTNE
JAN 03, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Gartner“By 2028, brands’ organic search traffic will decrease by 50%+ as consumers embrace GenAI-powered search (70% trust from survey ~July 2023).”
FOLLOW-UP
Evidence from February 2026 showed a 25% decline in traditional search engine volume, halfway to the 50% forecast. While some analyses aligned with the 50%+ loss by 2028, no sources reported reaching or exceeding this threshold by May 2026, indicating an active but not yet settled outcome.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Marketing Tech NewsRECEIPT #GARTNE
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Gartner“Gartner predicts that by 2026, traditional search engine volume will drop by 25% as market share shifts to AI chatbots and AI-driven search. Additionally, Gartner forecasts that by 2028, organic search traffic will decrease by 50% or more.”
FOLLOW-UP
The prediction that traditional search engine volume will drop by 25% by 2026 appears to be on track, with evidence from February 2026 showing significant shifts to AI chatbots, while the 2028 prediction is too early to evaluate.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
J.P. Morgan 2025 Emerging Technology Trends ReportRECEIPT #DR-CEC
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Dr. Cecilia Dones“Imagine a world very soon where we use only the LLMs to do our exploratory search. ... The brand will no longer have intermediary control.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #GARETT
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Garett Sloane“No matter what shakes out in the wash, this in the future, we're going to be talking to an LLM to search the web or engaging an assistant to book us a hotel room in some capacity. Whichever company wins out, it will be the question.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
