The short version

Andrew Ng predicted on September 23, 2014: “In five years, we think 50 percent of queries will be on speech or images.” Verdict: Missed it. Missed. At the time, about 10% of Baidu queries were voice. Halfway through the window (2016), Google said roughly 10-20% of its mobile queries were voice - and no measurement before or after the 2019-2020…

Prediction by

Andrew Ng

On September 23, 2014

“In five years, we think 50 percent of queries will be on speech or images.”

Follow-up

Missed. At the time, about 10% of Baidu queries were voice. Halfway through the window (2016), Google said roughly 10-20% of its mobile queries were voice - and no measurement before or after the 2019-2020 deadline ever put voice plus image search anywhere near 50% of all searches. The stat lived on for years misattributed to Comscore, which confirmed it never published it. Mary Meeker amplified the forecast in her Internet Trends 2016 deck as "by 2020, at least 50% of all searches".

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