— Topic —

    Retail Media

    13 receipts tracked • 94% industry hit rate

    Retail media networks: Amazon Ads, Walmart Connect, etc.

    — Filed —

    13 receipts on Retail Media

    Browse all →

    RECEIPT #ARI-PA

    JUL 29, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    I think there's definitely a danger that Amazon uses its power, which is extraordinary. It's an extraordinary amount of data for marketers and reach among its audience to tie up a big portion of the media business and create a little mini monopoly. And I don't see anything stopping them right now because what they're doing is not illegal. They don't have a monopoly in anything except maybe book sales or something.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Next in Media

    RECEIPT #ARI-PA

    JUL 29, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    I think there's definitely a danger that Amazon uses its power, which is extraordinary. It's an extraordinary amount of data for marketers and reach among its audience to tie up a big portion of the media business and create a little mini monopoly. And I don't see anything stopping them right now because what they're doing is not illegal. They don't have a monopoly in anything except maybe book sales or something.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Next in Media

    RECEIPT #EVAN-S

    DEC 23, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Evan Shapiro
    2025 PREDICTION #2: RETAIL MEDIA WILL GO MORE MAINSTREAM NEXT YEAR, WITH A WAVE OF RETAIL MEDIA ON CTV.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Retail media on CTV continues to be a trend in 2026, as evidenced by Shapiro's comments in a Roku webinar. However, specific 2025 spend figures for 'retail media on CTV' are not provided to fully verify the prediction's 'mainstream' claim. The general growth of retail media and its overtaking of global TV ad revenues in 2025 (per GroupM) supports the overall trend, but the CTV-specific aspect for 2025 remains unquantified in the provided text.

    RECEIPT #RICH-M

    APR 03, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Rich Muhlstock
    Like retailers, we have first-party data and a dedicated audience. But what sets us apart is the unrivaled scale and insights from our customers — having long served as a trusted guide for their financial decisions. Chase reaches across brands, merchants and shopping verticals, providing a comprehensive view of purchase behavior; this strengthens the degree of personalization, helping brands deliver offers that stoke consumer interests.

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction describes the initial capabilities and expected benefits of Chase Media Solutions upon its launch. While the article highlights some early successes, the full extent of personalization and comprehensive view of purchase behavior are still developing and subject to ongoing implementation and market adoption. The prediction is more a statement of intent than a quantifiable forecast, making a definitive 'right' or 'partially_right' verdict difficult at this early stage without further data on its long-term impact and customer interest.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Banking Dive

    RECEIPT #IAN-BL

    JAN 01, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ian Black
    Increasing prevalence of AI-based activation” in retail media, led by Amazon and mature networks; retailers will automate audience/placement selection for outputs like ROAS or new-to-brand growth, balancing automation with advertiser controls.

    FOLLOW-UP

    AI activation trends grew in retail media, with generative AI dominating tech forecasts, aligning with the prediction of increased AI-based activation and automation.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    eConsultancy

    RECEIPT #JACLYN

    JAN 01, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jaclyn Nix
    AI is going to be increasingly important – both generative and predictive. [Epsilon] has been using predictive AI to get the right message in front of the right consumer at the right time for over 10 years. This is not going to stop and will become increasingly important to help drive the best outcomes for consumers, brands and retailers.” (On generative AI: “This too will be important to help manage campaigns and manage creative within retail media.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Retail AI spending increased significantly, and generative AI became central to tech forecasts.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    eConsultancy

    RECEIPT #ANTHON

    AUG 10, 2022

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Anthony Vargas
    Retail media networks are going to eat search budgets faster than CTV ate TV — every retailer with a loyalty program is now an ad seller.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Validated: RMN spend hit ~$55B by 2024 (eMarketer), Walmart Connect, Kroger Precision, Target Roundel all crossed $1B+ in ad revenue, dozens of mid-market retailers launched networks.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    AdExchanger

    RECEIPT #FISCHE

    MAR 29, 2022

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Sara Fischer
    Retail media networks are about to become the third big wave of digital advertising, after search and social.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Fischer called retail media the "third wave" in early 2022. By 2025 retail media surpassed $60B in US ad spend, third-largest channel after search and social, exactly as forecast.

    RECEIPT #PERLOF

    MAY 02, 2023

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Catherine Perloff
    Amazon Ads is on track to be the third pillar of digital advertising and is squeezing both Google and Meta for budget.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Perloff's 2023 call. Amazon ad revenue hit $56B in 2024, surpassing all linear TV; clearly the #3 digital ad platform behind Google and Meta.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Adweek

    EVIDENCE

    RECEIPT #ANDREW

    JAN 01, 2018

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Andrew Lipsman
    Retail media will likely come full circle, moving from brick-and-mortar to digital to TV and right back into the physical store—only this time through digital media displays. While brick-and-mortar signage is still in the early phases of adoptions, particularly in grocery stores where it wields the greatest potential, it’s inevitable that retail media will get reintroduced into this environment—albeit in a different format.

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction came true, as Andrew Lipsman himself reaffirmed in 2025 that retail media is expanding into in-store environments as the "next major frontier," offering significant incremental reach, with examples like Walmart's CTV push via Vizio.

    RECEIPT #BERKOW

    JAN 15, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    David Berkowitz
    Not everyone needs to buy everything through AI for it to become a healthy sales channel. This year, many of the sources of friction are going away. Consumers may be surprised at first that they can buy that weather-sealing tape without leaving the conversation. Soon enough, they'll expect it.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Made at NRF 2026 as in-chat checkout was just rolling out across ChatGPT (Instant Checkout), Perplexity (Shop with Pro), and Amazon Rufus. The thesis is testable through 2026–2027: does conversational commerce hit a "healthy sales channel" share, or stall like Alexa shopping did?

    RECEIPT #CATHER

    JAN 09, 2026

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Catherine Perloff
    Open-web programmatic CPMs will continue to compress in Q1 2026 as walled-garden retail media siphons budgets, with at least one major SSP issuing a guidance cut.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Magnite cut Q1 2026 revenue guidance citing exactly this dynamic; PubMatic followed with softer language. Open-web CPM index from Operative was down 9% YoY in March.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Adweek