Scott Galloway

By 2025-mid-2026, YouTube solidified its role as a central video and creator platform, becoming a leading platform for podcast distribution and consumption, and showing strong growth in Connected TV (CTV) ad dollars. Podcasts continued to grow as an ad-supported medium with high engagement. This prediction has been substantially borne out, with YouTube's centrality to video, streaming, and podcast advertising widely acknowledged.

Through 2025–mid-2026, YouTube has become a central platform for podcasts, with many shows distributing full video episodes and clips there, and YouTube’s own “podcast” category and features expanding. Several large podcast producers have reported YouTube as their largest single distribution channel by reach, aligning with Galloway’s characterization.

This prediction is about 2025, which is still unfolding. Current trends confirm YouTube's increasing dominance as a podcast platform, suggesting strong directional accuracy.

This prediction is about 2025, which is still unfolding. However, the existing trends towards increased podcast consumption and advertising revenue suggest strong directionality.

The prediction is conditional on the end of the war in Ukraine. As of mid-2026, the war has not clearly ended, so the condition has not been met, and the prediction cannot yet be evaluated.

As of mid-2026, two years have not fully elapsed since the prediction (made August 2024). While TikTok/Bytedance grew, Meta remained larger in global revenue and user reach across its platforms. The timeframe for 'within two years' is still active, but the full 'usurping' has not occurred yet.

The streaming market saw increased bundling, price hikes, and consolidation through 2024-2026. However, no major global streaming service fully 'shut down' in the sense of disappearing entirely by mid-2026, though smaller niche services were absorbed or restructured. The consolidation trend was correct, but the specific outcome of a major shutdown was not clearly realized.

Incumbent big tech firms like Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft aggressively integrated AI models into their products and services during 2024-2025, demonstrating a strong 'strike back' against AI upstarts, consistent with the metaphor.

Alphabet's business performed strongly through 2024-2025, with revenue and share price growing materially, making it a strong performer among large-cap tech companies and supporting the prediction of it being a good stock pick.

GLP-1 drugs became a major economic and cultural force, with significant revenue and valuation growth for pharma companies, and became a central topic in consumer behavior and health policy, rivaling AI's consumer impact. While 'tech of the year' is qualitative, its impact was highly significant as predicted.

Similar to the previous TikTok prediction, later summaries continued to treat this as a live 2024 thesis, but the supplied results do not contain a definitive outcome report establishing how much pressure, if any, materialized by year-end 2024. The outcome is still developing.

Based only on the supplied results, there is no verification that any major streaming service actually shut down in 2024. Therefore, the outcome remains unverified from the available materials. The outcome is still developing.

The OMR article (Jan 2024) and the podcast transcript (Jan 2024) both confirm this prediction. However, the supplied results do not contain a definitive 'before/after' market outcome for travel stocks tied specifically to this forecast by year-end 2024. The outcome is still developing.

The OMR article states that Galloway expected a particularly good performance from Alphabet stock in 2024. Without full year-end stock performance data for Alphabet from the provided materials, a definitive verdict cannot be rendered. The outcome is still developing.

Galloway's forecast was a bet on Google's large-data advantage and competitive response to AI disruption. The supplied results do not provide a definitive 'winner' outcome by end of 2024, and the 'striking back' is an ongoing process. The outcome is still developing.

While AI remained a strategic priority, later 2024 commentary suggested that valuations had indeed softened or peaked, rather than experiencing a full collapse. The prediction of 'deflation' rather than a 'burst' is consistent with the market narrative where intense hype cooled but the underlying technology continued to develop. The OMR article (Jan 2024) confirms Galloway's belief in 'Peak AI'.

GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic, remained a dominant technology and market theme throughout 2024. The CoinGeek article (May 2024) specifically mentions Galloway elaborating on this prediction and its downstream consequences, reinforcing its prominence in the year. Numerous reports indicate GLP-1 drugs were a major disruptive force and topic of discussion in 2024, confirming the prediction's directional accuracy.

Galloway's thesis is that TikTok will increase pressure on Netflix and Spotify by expanding into long-form content and music streaming. The supplied results do not contain a definitive outcome report establishing how much pressure, if any, materialized by year-end 2024, but later summaries continued to treat this as a live 2024 thesis. The outcome is still developing.

The rise of AI companions and concerns about their psychological effects align with this prediction.

AI tools have been widely adopted, and professionals skilled in AI have gained an advantage, supporting this forecast.

The 2024 US election cycle saw extensive concern and coverage around misinformation on social and video platforms.

Hollywood has faced continued struggles, while sports, TikTok, Netflix, and generative AI have strengthened their roles.

GLP-1 drugs have had a significant impact on markets, consumer behavior, and brand strategy, validating this prediction.

WhatsApp has become a key growth driver for Meta, while Facebook's growth and cultural centrality have slowed.

Consolidation and rebundling trends are directionally accurate, but no major streaming service has fully shut down.

2024-2026 saw the continued rise of creator-led brands, influencer-driven commerce, and personality-driven media. This includes direct-to-consumer brands by creators, and platforms where individual personalities are stronger draws than corporate brands. The observable trajectory of marketing budgets aligns with the thesis that 'people are the new brands.'

AI-enhanced chatbots and 'AI companions' have grown rapidly, and concerns about AI-enabled radicalization and deepfakes are documented. However, a widespread, clearly attributable wave of U.S. domestic terrorism 'from people in uniform weaponized by AI girlfriends' has not become a dominant threat. AI's net effect on job creation is also complex and not conclusively confirmed macroeconomically. The mechanism is plausible and partially visible, but the specific terrorism scenario has not fully materialized.

TikTok's share of attention and marketing budgets increased, becoming a more central video platform. However, streaming services continued to grow subscribers and ad revenue, particularly via ad-supported tiers. The prediction was directionally right about competitive pressure, but without clear share-loss or structural damage to Netflix/Spotify's core businesses.

Nvidia, in particular, did not get 'cut in half' in the 12–18 months following early 2024; instead, it experienced very strong share-price performance driven by AI-related demand for GPUs. The strong form financial prediction has been wrong so far.

TikTok's share of attention and ad budgets continued to rise, competing more with streaming and music platforms. However, Netflix and Spotify remained category leaders and showed no clear evidence of their core subscription businesses being 'eaten into' by TikTok in 2024. The prediction was directionally accurate regarding competitive pressure and attention shift, but not full displacement.

Nigeria and Indonesia have maintained positive growth trajectories since 2024, supporting the prediction.

India has continued to post high GDP growth relative to many major economies and attracted significant investment in tech, manufacturing, and digital services since 2024, consistent with the "lead growth rate" framing, and supporting the prediction's direction.

GLP-1-based drugs saw massive uptake and media coverage in 2024–2025, with significant impacts on pharma revenues, consumer behavior, and expectations for obesity treatment. Measurable indicators suggest GLP-1 drugs had very substantial real-world impact, arguably more directly felt in everyday lives than GPT-4 for many people in 2024–2025, despite GPT-4's major influence in its own domain.

AI investment, model releases, and corporate adoption continued to accelerate after 2024, especially in 2025-2026. Public search interest in 'AI' showed fluctuations but did not collapse. The claim that 2024 would represent 'Peak AI' has not been borne out, as AI activity and prominence have remained high or increased.

TikTok has moved closer into Spotify's lane through music features and programming, and rolled out TikTok Music in some markets. However, Spotify remains the leading global music streaming subscription service, and TikTok has not yet become a full-scale direct replacement or equal competitor to Spotify’s core subscription model.

No major, widely recognized subscription video streaming service has fully 'shut down' and disappeared from the market in 2024 as of mid-2026. Several have rebranded, merged catalogs, or been folded into bundles, but they continue to operate. Smaller niche streamers have struggled or been quietly absorbed, but there is no documented case of a significant consumer-facing streaming platform that clearly 'closed down' in 2024 in the sense implied by his prediction (an outright shutdown rather than consolidation or rebranding).

No major, widely recognized subscription video streaming service has fully 'shut down' and disappeared from the market in 2024 as of mid-2026. Several have rebranded, merged catalogs, or been folded into bundles, but they continue to operate. Smaller niche streamers have struggled or been quietly absorbed, but there is no documented case of a significant consumer-facing streaming platform that clearly 'closed down' in 2024 in the sense implied by his prediction (an outright shutdown rather than consolidation or rebranding).

Meta aggressively launched AI initiatives (Llama, Meta AI), becoming a major AI player, but not 'the' singular AI company of 2025 alongside OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google. YouTube strengthened its role in podcast distribution and video podcasts, aligning well with the prediction of becoming the platform to watch for podcasts.

Under a Democratic administration, antitrust cases and scrutiny against large tech firms intensified. However, as of mid-2026, no actual structural breakup of any leading U.S. big tech company has occurred. The phrase 'beginning of the breakup' can be interpreted as the start of serious antitrust processes, which have intensified but no formal breakups have been implemented yet. This is evolving.

While the trend of streaming consolidation and rebundling was accurate, no major global streaming service (e.g., Netflix, Disney+, Max) completely shut down in 2024. There were restructurings, rebrandings, and mergers, but not outright shutdowns of leading platforms.

As of mid-2026, within the implied two-year window, there is no widely accepted evidence that ByteDance has overtaken Meta in overall revenue, user base, or global economic power. Meta remains a publicly traded giant with higher reported user numbers and ad revenue.

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs became a major economic and societal storyline in 2024-2025, impacting health, consumer behavior, and equity markets. While AI models also had large impacts, GLP-1's effect on healthcare, consumer categories, and capital markets was arguably at least as visible, making the prediction directionally accurate.

Global travel demand remained robust in 2024, aligning with the 'continue to boom' narrative. However, the specific forecast that share prices of companies like Booking.com and Expedia would 'explode' in 2024 was overstated, with performance being generally positive but not spectacular.

While TikTok continued to grow its share of attention, there is no clear public data showing it measurably taking market share from Netflix's or Spotify's core subscription businesses by the end of 2024. Both Netflix and Spotify reported continued growth.

The prediction is for 2024, and it's too early to conclusively determine the extent to which Alphabet and Microsoft have 'come for' traditional AI companies by the end of the year.

The year 2024 is still ongoing, and final valuation data for AI at the end of the year is not yet available to make a definitive judgment.

It is too early to definitively say if TikTok has materially impacted Netflix or Spotify's business in 2024 as the year is not over and comprehensive data is not yet available.

Over 2024–2025, Alphabet’s stock delivered solid positive returns, supported by resilient search advertising, YouTube ad growth, and expanding cloud and AI offerings. While not the absolute top performer among all large-cap tech names, it was a reasonable and broadly successful call.

Venture funding and valuations for AI startups remained high through 2024, but there has been increasing evidence of down-rounds and valuation pressure at some AI startups and public market re-rating of “AI-exposed” stocks when revenue growth didn’t always match initial hype. AI is clearly still a growth area, but the narrative has shifted from “pure hype” toward “productivity and monetization,” reflecting a deflation, not a burst.

TikTok's share of user attention continued to grow relative to traditional subscription video streamers like Netflix and Disney+. TikTok expanded its role in music discovery, live shopping, and short-form entertainment, which competes directly with streaming platforms for attention. However, the exact market-share transfer is not cleanly documented.