Brian Wieser

This is a multi-year forecast extending beyond 2025, and it is too early to determine the outcome. No information in the provided snippets confirms or denies this prediction.

This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 non-political ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.

This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 US ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.

Wieser's December 2024 prediction of 4.5% growth for 2025 was subsequently downgraded to 3.6% by March 2025, confirming the prediction that he would 'tamp down' expectations for the new year (2025).

While later forecasts mention digital share projections, the provided snippets do not contain specific realized data on digital ad revenue growth for 2024 to confirm or deny the 10.7% prediction.

While Wieser maintained his expectation of H2 2024 deceleration as of September 2024, the strong Q2 performance (9.6% growth) contradicted an *imminent* slowdown. The provided snippets do not contain actual realized Q3 and Q4 2024 growth figures to definitively confirm or deny the H2 deceleration.

Wieser's March 2024 forecast of 5.6% growth for the U.S. ad industry in 2024 (excluding political) was later revised upward repeatedly to 7.2% by September 2024, indicating the actual performance was stronger than initially predicted in March.

This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 digital ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.

This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 retail media growth are not yet available in the provided text.

Wieser's December 2024 forecast for 4.5% US ad revenue growth in 2025 was optimistic. By March 2025, he downgraded this forecast again to 3.6%, citing continuing geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty, indicating an even softer year than anticipated in December.

Wieser's September 2024 forecast of 7.2% non-political growth and 10.5% with political was still slightly conservative. His own December 2024 retrospective summary indicated roughly 9% total ad revenue growth for 2024 (implying the ex-political was also higher than 7.2%), but the double-digit political growth prediction aligns with later characterizations of 2024.

Wieser's Q2 estimate of 6.7% growth was conservative, as actual Q2 expansion was 9.6%. His full-year upgrade to 6.3% was also conservative, with later forecasts reaching 7.2%. However, his prediction that Q3 and Q4 2024 would decelerate was directionally correct, as growth remained solid but down from the earlier strong quarterly rates.

Wieser's March 2024 forecast of 5.6% full-year growth and 8% Q1 growth for the US ad economy understated actual 2024 performance. His own later estimates and contemporaneous reporting show the realized (or very nearly realized) outcome closer to 7%+ growth for the year ex-political, with Q2 growth coming in much higher than implied by the Q1 estimate.

The prediction is for the year 2026, which has not yet occurred. There is no outcome available in the provided materials to evaluate this forecast.

This is a qualitative prediction about a trend. While commerce media continues to be a focus, the degree to which it is 'leading' is subjective and not definitively confirmed or refuted by the provided materials.

The year 2024 is not yet complete, and the provided materials do not contain a final figure for 2024 political ad spending to confirm or deny this prediction.

Later updates suggested a deceleration from Q1, but full-year growth was projected much higher than 4%.

Wieser later raised the non-political forecast to 5.6% and then 6.3%, and eventually to 7.2% for 2024, so the initial roughly 5% call proved conservative relative to his own later revisions.

Wieser revised his 2024 ad growth forecast multiple times, with later forecasts for 7.2% growth, indicating the initial 5.6% prediction was surpassed. However, the exact outcome of 2024 ad growth won't be definitively known until the year concludes.

This early-2024 forecast understated the eventual strength of the market. It was superseded by his own later upward revisions, and compared to actual outcomes, is best viewed as a conservative starting point that proved too low.

The specific 2028 numbers cannot yet be verified, but interim growth data (2024–Q2 2025) show accelerating growth in commerce media in the 19–24% range, which is on pace for the forecast.

Too early to fully validate the 2028 end-point, but interim data (2023–2025) support his projected direction and pace of rising digital share.

His ballpark level (low- to mid-teens billions) is well aligned with subsequent independent tallies.

The forecast of 10.5% growth including political ad spending is consistent with later industry tallies and the qualitative prediction of a "banner year for political ad spending".

Wieser's own data, with strong H1 growth and a lower full-year forecast, implied H2 deceleration. Contemporaneous coverage explicitly described slower growth, consistent with his prediction.

This is an analytic judgment about overallocation rather than a numeric forecast with a specific datable outcome. However, later discussions about media mix optimization and social ROI suggest his critique remained relevant and debated.

Since Wieser’s figure is explicitly built off GroupM’s advertising estimate, which remained an industry benchmark, his top-line global marketing forecast is consistent with major later sources.

The prediction that growth in political ad spending would be less explosive than some might assume was consistent with the eventual narrative that much of 2024’s ad strength came from non-political digital and commerce media.

Industry tallies of 2024 U.S. political ad spend generally indicated record-high spending in the mid-teens of billions, aligning with Wieser’s order-of-magnitude prediction and modest growth versus 2020.

Industry tallies of 2024 U.S. political ad spend generally indicated record-high spending in the mid-teens of billions, aligning with Wieser’s order-of-magnitude prediction.

This forecast appears to have been broadly validated by later discussions of 2024 as a ~10.5% growth year including political, with subsequent commentary treating this as a realized benchmark.

As 2028 is in the future, the exact 76% figure cannot be evaluated yet. However, interim data and industry consensus continue to support a strong rising digital share, consistent with the trajectory predicted.

Actual Q1 2024 U.S. ad spend (excluding political) grew 10.1%, exceeding Wieser's 8% forecast.

Wieser later revised his 2024 U.S. ad spending growth forecast upward multiple times, ultimately to 7.2% (excluding political), indicating the market was stronger than his initial 5.6% prediction.

A later LinkedIn-posted summary says Wieser cut his 2025 outlook to 3.6%, implying the 5.3% forecast was subsequently revised down.

The same source says this later “looks more like a decrease of 1.2% for the year,” so the original forecast overestimated the decline.

The outcome is not yet fully knowable by 2026 from the provided results, because the forecast extends to 2028 and no later verification is included in your search set.

The provided results do not include a final audited total for 2024, so I cannot verify the realized outcome from your sources alone.

Later coverage described 2024 as a year of strong growth but also a slowdown in the second half; the forecast itself was not contradicted in the provided results, but Wieser’s later 2025 outlook implied a return to more normal growth rates after 2024.

He later revised this forecast upward multiple times, including to 6.3% in June and 7.2% by September, indicating the outcome tracked above his January forecast.

Wieser's initial forecast of 5.6% growth for U.S. ad expenditures (excluding political) was later revised upward to 7.2%, indicating the original prediction was too low.

This is a full-year forecast for 2024. The final, audited figures for 2024 political ad spend are not yet available to confirm this prediction.

This is a full-year forecast for 2024 including political ad spend. The final figures for 2024 are not yet available to confirm this prediction.

This is a revised full-year forecast for 2024, made in September. While Q1 and Q2 growth were strong, the final outcome for the full year 2024 is still evolving.

Retail media and cross-border e-commerce marketers like Temu and Shein continued to be cited as significant drivers of ad spending throughout 2024.

Subsequent industry commentary supported the idea of a slowdown in growth rates during the second half of 2024, attributed to tougher comparisons rather than a downturn.

This forecast of 7.2% for non-political ad spending and 10.5% including political ad spending for 2024 appears consistent with later reports and industry consensus for 2024.

These forecasts became the industry benchmark for 2024, and no public reports indicate a significant deviation from these predictions. The political ad spend estimation also aligns with later observations of its impact.

This is a long-term projection for 2028, so it is too early to determine a final verdict. Early 2024 data showed digital's share already at 66.1%, trending in the predicted direction.

Wieser later revised this forecast upward multiple times, eventually projecting 7.2% growth for 2024 (excluding political), indicating the market performed better than this initial 5.6% forecast. The forecast was directionally correct in predicting growth, but the magnitude was too low.