Pundit
Brian Wieser
50 receipts • Tracked since Apr 2026
Principal, Madison and Wall. Former global president of business intelligence at GroupM.
Affiliations
No firm affiliations on record.
— Filed —
50 receipts
2025
12 predictions- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“US advertising revenue will grow just 3.6% in 2025... down from the 4.5% growth he predicted in December. ... In December, Wieser predicted that the US ad industry would end 2024 with roughly 9% growth, although on Tuesday he adjusted that figure to 8.6%, noting that growth 'ended up slowing fairly meaningfully.'”
This is a forward-looking forecast for 2025 U.S. ad growth. As 2025 has not fully elapsed, the final outcome cannot yet be definitively measured against this prediction.
- Jun 4, 2025Story still evolving.“Brian Wieser has boosted the outlook for U.S. ad-spending growth this year to 6.0%. That’s nearly double the percent change he forecast in March when he downgraded his outlook … to 3.6%.”
This was a mid-year upgrade based on H1 2025 performance, marking a significant reversal from earlier cautious stances. Full-year 2025 actuals are not yet available to judge the 6.0% forecast.
- Jun 4, 2025Too early to tell.““Brian Wieser has boosted the outlook for U.S. ad-spending growth this year to 6.0%. That's nearly double the percent change he forecast in March…””
This is the latest 2025 forecast documented. Final realized 2025 ad spending data is not yet available to evaluate its accuracy.
- Mar 18, 2025Partially right.““Wieser now estimates U.S. ad spending growth will rise 3.6% in 2025, down from his 4.5% forecast in December 2024, and his 5.3% benchmark in September 2024.””
This 3.6% forecast was later superseded by a significant upward revision to 6.0% in June 2025, demonstrating it was an intermediate and not final view.
- Jun 4, 2025Story still evolving.“In a surprise move following a series of consecutive downgrades, Brian Wieser has boosted the outlook for U.S. ad‑spending growth this year to 6.0%. That's nearly double the percent change he forecast in March when he downgraded his outlook for the second time following his original 2025 benchmark of 5.3% growth in September 2024.”
Brian Wieser predicted 6.0% growth for 2025. As of August 2026, fully audited actuals for full-year 2025 U.S. ad spending are not yet available in the provided sources. This remains a live forecast.
- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“US advertising revenue will grow just 3.6% in 2025, Wieser … wrote in a report published on Tuesday, down from the 4.5% growth he predicted in December.”
The 2025 full-year outcome is not yet known.
- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“Wieser anticipates a similarly reduced growth range at least until 2027 as the economy adapts to the new policies.”
This is a long-term forecast for which the outcome is not yet known.
- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“Citing continuing geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty, Wieser now estimates U.S. ad spending growth will rise 3.6% in 2025, down from his 4.5% forecast in December 2024, and his 5.3% benchmark in September 2024.”
The 2025 full-year outcome is not yet known.
- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“Beyond 2025, Madison and Wall has ‘generally moderated’ its growth expectations slightly ‘to better reflect the growth challenges that are likely to occur…’ putting the annual growth rate at roughly 3.5% for the next few years.”
This is a long-term projection covering years beyond 2025. No outcome can yet be assessed as the period has not significantly elapsed.
- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“Our new forecast for 2025 now calls for 3.6% growth excluding political advertising… Beyond 2025, Madison and Wall has ‘generally moderated’ its growth expectations slightly ‘to better reflect the growth challenges that are likely to occur if the administration’s policies are pursued as we expect them to be,’ he says, putting the annual growth rate at roughly 3.5% for the next few years.”
This is a multi-year forecast extending beyond 2025, and it is too early to determine the outcome. No information in the provided snippets confirms or denies this prediction.
- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“According to Brian Wieser… the latest forecast, published today (March 18), places non-political ad spending growth at 3.6% for the year…”
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 non-political ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.
- Mar 18, 2025Too early to tell.“Wieser now estimates U.S. ad spending growth will rise 3.6% in 2025, down from his 4.5% forecast in December 2024, and his 5.3% benchmark in September 2024.”
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 US ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.
2024
38 predictions- Dec 10, 2024Missed it.“US ad revenue grew roughly 9% this year... calling for growth of 4.5% [for 2025].”
Wieser later revised both figures: he downgraded his 2025 growth forecast from 4.5% to 3.6% in March 2025, and also revised his estimate of 2024 growth downward from ~9% to 8.6%.
- Sep 4, 2024Missed it.“Citing a 'much stronger than expected' second-quarter expansion of 9.6%, Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. ... U.S. ad spending is expected to grow 7.2% to $381 billion in 2024, excluding political ad spending … Including political spending, U.S. advertising is expected to grow 10.5% to $397 billion.”
Wieser's later forecast updates for full-year 2024 showed actual growth exceeding his September 4 prediction of +7.2% ex-political and +10.5% including political, eventually settling at 8.6% total growth.
- Dec 10, 2024Missed it.“calling for growth of 4.5% [for 2025]”
Brian Wieser's December 2024 forecast of 4.5% U.S. ad growth for 2025 was subsequently revised downward to 3.6% in March 2025 and then upward to 6.0% in June 2025 by Wieser himself, indicating his initial prediction did not remain his view.
- Sep 4, 2024Missed it.“the bull ad market will soon revert to normal growth rates – down from 7.2% overall in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025”
Brian Wieser's September 2024 forecast of 5.3% U.S. ad growth for 2025 was subsequently revised downward to 3.6% in March 2025 and then upward to 6.0% in June 2025 by Wieser himself, indicating his initial prediction did not hold as his base case.
- Sep 4, 2024Called it.“Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. … Importantly, the growth estimate excludes what is projected to be a banner year for U.S. political ad spending, which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits — 10.5% — if included.”
Wieser's September forecast of 7.2% U.S. ad growth excluding political and 10.5% including political was highly accurate. Later reporting confirmed total U.S. ad spend reached about $397 billion, with ~16 billion from political, aligning with his projections and an overall ~9% growth rate.
- Jan 3, 2024Partially right.“Ad revenue in the US is set to grow in 2024. … Although the relative highs of 2023 will be hard to repeat, he predicts the US ad industry will grow by roughly 5% (minus political spending) and 9% with political spend.”
Wieser's prediction for 9% ad growth including political spending was close to the actual ~9% full-year U.S. ad revenue growth. However, his initial 'roughly 5%' forecast excluding political spending was lower than the actual outcome, which was closer to 7.2% excluding political.
- Jan 3, 2024Partially right.“Although the relative highs of 2023 will be hard to repeat, he predicts the US ad industry will grow by roughly 5% (minus political spending) and 9% with political spend.”
Direction right, magnitudes low on both counts. Wieser predicted roughly 5% ex-political growth and 9% growth including political for 2024. By December 2024 he had revised his own ex-political estimate up to 9.0% - the fifth consecutive upgrade and more than double his initial 4.3% benchmark - and including political spending the year came in around 10.5%. The ad market did not talk itself into a downturn, but his January numbers underestimated the year by several points.
- Dec 10, 2024Partially right.“calling for growth of 4.5%.”
Wieser later revised this 2025 forecast downward to 3.6% in March 2025, indicating that his view of likely 2025 performance deteriorated, making the original 4.5% forecast too optimistic.
- Sep 4, 2024Partially right.“Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023... which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits — 10.5% — if included [political].”
The ultimate full-year figure Wieser used for 2024 growth (~9% ex-political) was higher than the 7.2% predicted, indicating an underestimation. However, his prediction that the second half of 2024 would exhibit deceleration was directionally correct.
- Apr 21, 2024Story still evolving.““Advertising expenditures in the United States are projected to rise by 5.6% this year, reaching $360 billion, as reported by financial analyst Brian Wieser.” AND “For this year, digital ad revenues are anticipated to increase by 10.7%, nearly doubling the overall growth in advertising expenditures.” AND “Focusing specifically on retail media, Wieser predicts that this channel will soar ... which would represent about 19% of total advertising spending.””
The overall 2024 ad growth forecast of 5.6% was later revised upwards by Wieser. However, the specific predictions for digital ad revenue growth (10.7%) and retail media's share (~19%) for 2024 lack outcome data in the provided material, making their accuracy indeterminate.
- Sep 4, 2024Partially right.““Wieser believes things will naturally decelerate in the back half and eventually level out to a more typical, mid-single-digit growth rate – down from 7.2% overall in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025.” AND “Last year, Wieser predicted that national TV ad spending would decrease by 2.3% in 2024, a slight blip between larger periods of decline in 2023 and 2025. However, now it looks more like a decrease of 1.2% for the year.””
The 5.3% 2025 overall ad growth forecast was part of an evolving sequence of predictions, later revised down (to 4.5%, then 3.6%) and then up (to 6.0%). The updated -1.2% national TV ad spend decline for 2024 cannot be verified with the provided information, as final 2024 national TV figures are absent.
- Dec 10, 2024Partially right.““he’s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%.””
This 4.5% forecast for 2025 was subsequently downgraded to 3.6% in March 2025, and then surprisingly upgraded to 6.0% in June 2025. This shows the initial prediction was not stable and evolved with new data.
- Jun 5, 2024Story still evolving.““Still, he forecast “massive” political adspend to the tune of $15.1bn for the year, up from $14.1bn in 2020.” AND “It’s important to note that this increase does not take into account political advertising, which Wieser anticipates will total $15.5 billion across all platforms.” AND “However, according to Wieser’s forecasts, only 14% more spending on political advertising will take place in 2024 compared to this same time in 2020.””
Wieser forecast "massive" 2024 US political ad spend of $15.1B, up from $14.1B in 2020 - the $14.1B being his own model's in-scope 2020 figure (GroupM's December 2020 estimate), not the AdImpact tracked-buys total ($9B in 2020, ~$11B final in 2024 per NBC News). On tracked buys 2024 did set a record, consistent with "massive", but the narrower scope means the $15.1B cannot be cleanly judged against AdImpact's number.
- Sep 4, 2024Partially right.““U.S. ad spending is expected to grow 7.2% to $381 billion in 2024, excluding political ad spending” AND “Including political spending, U.S. advertising is expected to grow 10.5% to $397 billion.””
This was Wieser's final 2024 forecast documented in the provided material. Later reports indicate he assessed the total ad revenue including political closer to 8.6%-9% in March 2025, which is below the 10.5% including political cited here, suggesting a modest downward adjustment based on final data.
- Jun 5, 2024Partially right.““The latest estimates put growth at 6.7% in Q2, with an upgrade for the full year from 5.6% to 6.3%.” AND “He thus predicted Q3 and Q4 2024 to grow “at a slightly slower pace on the back of relatively difficult comparables”.””
The full-year forecast of 6.3% was later upgraded to 7.2% (excluding political) and 10.5% (including political) by September 2024. The qualitative prediction of a 'slightly slower pace' in Q3/Q4 is supported by later articles reiterating this expectation, though specific realized quarterly data is not provided to confirm the exact degree.
- Mar 25, 2024Partially right.““The industry analyst now expects 5.6% growth in 2024, up from a prior 5.2% annual growth forecast.””
This 5.6% forecast was later revised upward by Wieser himself multiple times, reaching 7.2% (excluding political) and 10.5% (including political) by September 2024, indicating it was an intermediate, later superseded forecast.
- Jan 3, 2024Partially right.““he predicts the US ad industry will grow by roughly 5% (minus political spending) and 9% with political spend””
Wieser repeatedly revised his 2024 forecast upward throughout the year, with his final forecast settling well above this initial prediction (e.g., 7.2% excluding political, 10.5% including political, by Sept 2024). This indicates his initial view underestimated the market's strength.
- Dec 9, 2024Story still evolving.“According to industry doyen Brian Wieser, media analyst and author of the Madison and Wall newsletter, digital ad spending excluding political dollars is set to grow 8.4% next year — a noticeable drop from the 14.3% growth expected in 2024.”
Brian Wieser predicted digital ad spending (ex-political) would grow 8.4% in 2025, a drop from 14.3% in 2024. While his broader narrative supports a slowdown, specific digital-only actuals for 2025 are not yet documented in the provided sources.
- Jan 30, 2024Too early to tell.“Many think that growth can continue at double-digit levels for the fastest-growing companies for much longer a period of time than is realistic to expect.”
This qualitative prediction about the sustainability of double-digit growth for large ad-driven tech companies is too early to judge conclusively without comprehensive post-January 2024 earnings data for these specific companies, which is not provided.
- Dec 9, 2024Too early to tell.“digital ad spending excluding political dollars is set to grow 8.4% next year — a noticeable drop from the 14.3% growth expected in 2024.”
This prediction for 2025 digital ad spending growth (8.4%) is too early to judge, as 2025 has not concluded. The expected 2024 growth (14.3%) is a forecast from late 2024, not a realized figure within the provided text.
- Jan 3, 2024Partially right.“ad revenue in the US is set to grow in 2024,” and characterized the market as an “early thumbs‑up” year while forecasting “roughly 5% (minus political spending) and 9% with political spend.”
Wieser's directional call that 2024 would be a growth year (not a downturn) was correct. However, his numeric forecast of roughly 5% (ex-political) and 9% (with political) proved an underestimate, as later revisions indicated growth closer to 7.2% and 10.5% respectively.
- Mar 25, 2024Partially right.“now projects the U.S. ad economy will expand 5.6% this year – up from the 4.3% he originally projected in September 2023, and up from 5.2% in his last upward revision in November 2023.”
Wieser revised his forecast to 5.6% growth (ex-political) for 2024. This was still too conservative, as stronger-than-expected Q1 and Q2 data led him to further upgrade his full-year forecast to 7.2% (ex-political) by September.
- Jan 3, 2024Partially right.“ad revenue in the US is set to grow in 2024… he predicts the US ad industry will grow by roughly 5% (minus political spending) and 9% with political spend.”
Wieser was correct that the ad market would grow in 2024 and avoid a downturn. However, his initial forecast of roughly 5% (ex-political) and 9% (with political) was too low, as he later revised it upwards multiple times to 7.2% (ex-political) and 10.5% (with political).
- Dec 10, 2024Too early to tell.“However, he’s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%.”
The 2025 full-year outcome is not yet known. Wieser himself revised this forecast down to 3.6% in March 2025.
- Sep 6, 2024Called it.“Wieser, however, predicts the pace of growth will decelerate in the second half of 2024.”
Wieser confirmed in March 2025 that growth 'ended up slowing fairly meaningfully' in the back half of 2024, matching this prediction.
- Sep 4, 2024Partially right.“For the fifth time in five consecutive quarterly updates, ad industry economist Brian Wieser has revised his 2024 U.S. ad‑spending growth outlook upward. Citing a “much stronger than expected” second‑quarter expansion of 9.6%, Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. Importantly, the growth estimate excludes what is projected to be a banner year for U.S. political ad spending, which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits — 10.5% — if included.”
The September forecast (7.2% ex-political, 10.5% including political) still under-estimated the eventual 2024 growth rate, which Wieser later estimated at ~8.6–9% overall.
- Dec 10, 2024Partially right.“Last week, Wieser…published his quarterly forecast of industry growth, finding that US ad revenue grew roughly 9% this year, nearly 1.8% higher than he previously forecast. However, he’s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%.”
Wieser's 4.5% growth forecast for 2025 was subsequently revised both down to 3.6% (March 2025) and then up to 6.0% (June 2025) as new data emerged. The forecast did not remain stable.
- Mar 25, 2024Partially right.“The industry analyst now expects 5.6% growth in 2024, up from a prior 5.2% annual growth forecast.”
Wieser's 5.6% forecast for 2024 was subsequently revised upward multiple times, eventually reaching ~9% by year-end. This forecast also understated the actual stronger performance.
- Dec 10, 2024Called it.“Last week, Wieser… published his quarterly forecast of industry growth, finding that US ad revenue grew roughly 9% this year, nearly 1.8% higher than he previously forecast. However, he’s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%.”
Wieser's December 2024 prediction of 4.5% growth for 2025 was subsequently downgraded to 3.6% by March 2025, confirming the prediction that he would 'tamp down' expectations for the new year (2025).
- Apr 21, 2024Story still evolving.“For this year [2024], digital ad revenues are anticipated to increase by 10.7%, nearly doubling the overall growth in advertising expenditures.”
While later forecasts mention digital share projections, the provided snippets do not contain specific realized data on digital ad revenue growth for 2024 to confirm or deny the 10.7% prediction.
- Jun 5, 2024Story still evolving.“He thus predicted Q3 and Q4 2024 to grow 'at a slightly slower pace on the back of relatively difficult comparables.'”
While Wieser maintained his expectation of H2 2024 deceleration as of September 2024, the strong Q2 performance (9.6% growth) contradicted an *imminent* slowdown. The provided snippets do not contain actual realized Q3 and Q4 2024 growth figures to definitively confirm or deny the H2 deceleration.
- Mar 25, 2024Partially right.“U.S. ad industry revenue should increase a bit more this quarter and year than previously expected thanks to improved economic conditions and forecasts… The industry analyst now expects 5.6% growth in 2024, up from a prior 5.2% annual growth forecast.”
Wieser's March 2024 forecast of 5.6% growth for the U.S. ad industry in 2024 (excluding political) was later revised upward repeatedly to 7.2% by September 2024, indicating the actual performance was stronger than initially predicted in March.
- Dec 9, 2024Too early to tell.“According to industry doyen Brian Wieser… digital ad spending excluding political dollars is set to grow 8.4% next year, a noticeable drop from the 14.3% growth expected in 2024.”
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 digital ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.
- Dec 10, 2024Too early to tell.“Wieser projects that retail media will grow just 9.4% in 2025, much lower than the 18.3% growth it experienced in 2024.”
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 retail media growth are not yet available in the provided text.
- Dec 10, 2024Partially right.“Wieser… found that US ad revenue grew roughly 9% this year, nearly 1.8% higher than he previously forecast. However, he’s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%.”
Wieser's December 2024 forecast for 4.5% US ad revenue growth in 2025 was optimistic. By March 2025, he downgraded this forecast again to 3.6%, citing continuing geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty, indicating an even softer year than anticipated in December.
- Sep 4, 2024Partially right.“Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. Importantly, the growth estimate excludes what is projected to be a banner year for U.S. political ad spending, which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits — 10.5% — if included.”
Wieser's September 2024 forecast of 7.2% non-political growth and 10.5% with political was still slightly conservative. His own December 2024 retrospective summary indicated roughly 9% total ad revenue growth for 2024 (implying the ex-political was also higher than 7.2%), but the double-digit political growth prediction aligns with later characterizations of 2024.
- Jun 5, 2024Partially right.“The latest estimates put growth at 6.7% in Q2, with an upgrade for the full year from 5.6% to 6.3%. … He thus predicted Q3 and Q4 2024 to grow ‘at a slightly slower pace on the back of relatively difficult comparables’.”
Wieser's Q2 estimate of 6.7% growth was conservative, as actual Q2 expansion was 9.6%. His full-year upgrade to 6.3% was also conservative, with later forecasts reaching 7.2%. However, his prediction that Q3 and Q4 2024 would decelerate was directionally correct, as growth remained solid but down from the earlier strong quarterly rates.
- Mar 25, 2024Partially right.“Wieser now expects 5.6% growth in 2024, up from a prior 5.2% annual growth forecast. First-quarter ad industry revenue should rise 8%....”
Wieser's March 2024 forecast of 5.6% full-year growth and 8% Q1 growth for the US ad economy understated actual 2024 performance. His own later estimates and contemporaneous reporting show the realized (or very nearly realized) outcome closer to 7%+ growth for the year ex-political, with Q2 growth coming in much higher than implied by the Q1 estimate.