— Topic —
16 receipts tracked • 79% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #CRAMER
OCT 27, 2022
PREDICTION BY
Jim Cramer“I trusted this management team. That was ill-advised.”
FOLLOW-UP
Cramer declared Meta uninvestable at ~$97/share in Oct 2022. Stock then ran from ~$90 to over $700 by 2024 — one of the great recoveries of the decade. Inverse-Cramer at its purest.
RECEIPT #KURZWE
JAN 01, 1999
PREDICTION BY
Ray KurzweilParaphrase: By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence and pass the Turing test.
FOLLOW-UP
By May 2026, computers had not yet achieved human-level intelligence or passed the Turing test, as confirmed by Kurzweil himself and expert consensus on current AI models. However, with three years remaining in the prediction's timeframe and Kurzweil reaffirming the 2029 target, the situation is classified as evolving.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
VikingRECEIPT #KURZWE
JAN 01, 1990
PREDICTION BY
Ray KurzweilParaphrase: By 1998, a computer will defeat the world chess champion.
FOLLOW-UP
Kurzweil predicted in 1990 a computer would beat the world chess champion by 1998. Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov in May 1997 — a year ahead of schedule.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
MIT PressEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #KURZWE
SEP 22, 2005
PREDICTION BY
Ray Kurzweil“I set the date for the Singularity — representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability — as 2045.”
FOLLOW-UP
2045 deadline still 19 years out. Compute and AI capability gains 2023–2026 broadly track the exponential thesis; final verdict by 2045.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
VikingEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #THOMPS
JAN 22, 2020
PREDICTION BY
Ben Thompson“In other words, today’s cloud and mobile companies — Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google — may very well be the GM, Ford, and Chrysler of the 21st century.”
FOLLOW-UP
Thompson's 'End of the Beginning' thesis: cloud + mobile are the substrate, no platform shift coming. Five years on, the FAANGs only consolidated power; AI emerged as a layer ON TOP of cloud (OpenAI/Anthropic on Azure/AWS), exactly as he framed it.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
StratecheryEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #GALLOW
JAN 11, 2019
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“Amazon begins a march toward becoming the most valuable healthcare company in the world. ... Upon introduction of the service, or maybe even in the press release describing the initiative, Amazon records the greatest single-day appreciation (in value) of any company in history.”
FOLLOW-UP
Amazon bought PillPack (2018) and One Medical ($3.9B, 2022) and launched Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Clinic — but is nowhere near the most valuable healthcare company. UNH, LLY, and JNJ remain dominant.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
No Mercy / No MaliceRECEIPT #THOMPS
JUL 21, 2015
PREDICTION BY
Ben Thompson“The best distributors/aggregators/market-makers win by providing the best experience, which earns them the most consumers/users, which attracts the most suppliers, which enhances the user experience in a virtuous cycle.”
FOLLOW-UP
Aggregation Theory became the canonical framework for understanding platform dominance — vindicated by every subsequent FAANG earnings cycle and now cited in DOJ/FTC antitrust filings.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
StratecheryRECEIPT #BRINKE
MAY 07, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Scott Brinker“The myth of martech consolidation is dead. ... Martech is a long tail with a fat head.”
FOLLOW-UP
Martech landscape grew from 6,829 (2018) to 14,106 (2024) — more than doubled. Long-tail growth has outpaced consolidation every single year since.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
chiefmartecRECEIPT #ANDREE
AUG 20, 2011
PREDICTION BY
Marc Andreessen“Health care and education, in my view, are next up for fundamental software-based transformation… both are primed for tipping by great new software-centric entrepreneurs.”
FOLLOW-UP
Telehealth and edtech exploded post-2020 (Teladoc, Coursera, Duolingo IPOs), but 'fundamental transformation' of US healthcare and K-12 remains uneven.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
a16z / WSJEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #ANDREE
AUG 20, 2011
PREDICTION BY
Marc Andreessen“The creation of software-powered driverless cars is already under way at Google and the major car companies.”
FOLLOW-UP
Waymo (née Google self-driving) now runs paid driverless rides in multiple US cities by 2024-2025, but 'major car companies' have largely retreated (Cruise shutdown).
ORIGINAL SOURCE
a16z / WSJRECEIPT #ANDREE
AUG 20, 2011
PREDICTION BY
Marc Andreessen“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones, giving every individual with such a phone instant access to the full power of the Internet, every moment of every day.”
FOLLOW-UP
Smartphone users hit ~5B by 2022 per GSMA Intelligence — landed essentially on schedule.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
a16z / WSJEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #PG-LOT
OCT 01, 2007
PREDICTION BY
Paul Graham“My first prediction about the future of web startups is pretty straightforward: there will be a lot of them. When starting a startup was expensive, you had to get the permission of investors to do it. Now the only threshold is courage.”
FOLLOW-UP
Global startup formation exploded 2010s-2020s; YC alone went from ~40 cos/batch in 2007 to 200+/batch by 2021.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
paulgraham.comEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #PG-ACQ
OCT 01, 2007
PREDICTION BY
Paul Graham“As the volume of startups increases, big companies will start to develop standardized procedures that make acquisitions little more work than hiring someone.”
FOLLOW-UP
Acqui-hires became a recognized category through the 2010s; FAANG ran near-continuous tuck-in M&A pipelines.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
paulgraham.comRECEIPT #BROOKS
JAN 01, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Rodney Brooks“First driverless 'taxi' service in a major US city, with dedicated pick up and drop off points, and restrictions on weather and time of day. NET 2022.”
FOLLOW-UP
Waymo One launched paid driverless service in Phoenix in 2020 with geofence + weather restrictions — landed before his 'no earlier than 2022' floor.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
rodneybrooks.comRECEIPT #BROOKS
JAN 01, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Rodney Brooks“There will be no commercially viable passenger carrying systems for hyperloop within that time frame [32 years from 2018].”
FOLLOW-UP
Hyperloop One shut down November 2023; Virgin Hyperloop pivoted away from passengers. Brooks looking prescient less than 6 years in.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
rodneybrooks.comRECEIPT #BROOKS
JAN 01, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Rodney Brooks“A flying car can be purchased by any US resident if they have enough money. NET 2036. There is a real possibility that this will not happen at all by 2050.”
FOLLOW-UP
Flying cars are now available for purchase, partially fulfilling the prediction, but they are not yet approved for US residents and require licenses, falling short of being purchasable by 'any US resident' as envisioned.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
rodneybrooks.com