— Topic —

    VC Trends

    6 receipts tracked • 80% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    6 receipts on VC Trends

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    RECEIPT #DEVIN-

    JAN 21, 2026

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Devin Ryan
    “We apply some similar parallels to the kind of adoption that we saw in products like options in the early days and the amount of penetration we saw early on and that gets us to the multiples of the dollar value that is being transacted today. We are in the very early days; people are focused on sports because that is where the activity is. I think that is missing the bigger picture. The bigger prize is going to be the broader prediction markets around things that influence the economy or companies.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    Ryan argued that prediction markets' bigger prize would be events affecting companies and the economy, beyond sports. Pew's September 2026 analysis found trading volume had surged, but sports was still the largest category on both major platforms and drove most of the May-July increase. Broader economic and corporate adoption remains unproven; keep tracking it.

    RECEIPT #GALLOW

    JAN 11, 2019

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Scott Galloway
    “Amazon begins a march toward becoming the most valuable healthcare company in the world. ... Upon introduction of the service, or maybe even in the press release describing the initiative, Amazon records the greatest single-day appreciation (in value) of any company in history.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Amazon bought PillPack (2018) and One Medical ($3.9B, 2022) and launched Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Clinic — but is nowhere near the most valuable healthcare company. UNH, LLY, and JNJ remain dominant.

    RECEIPT #ANDREE

    AUG 20, 2011

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Marc Andreessen
    “Health care and education, in my view, are next up for fundamental software-based transformation… both are primed for tipping by great new software-centric entrepreneurs.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Telehealth and edtech exploded post-2020 (Teladoc, Coursera, Duolingo IPOs), but 'fundamental transformation' of US healthcare and K-12 remains uneven.

    RECEIPT #PG-LOT

    OCT 01, 2007

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Paul Graham
    “My first prediction about the future of web startups is pretty straightforward: there will be a lot of them. When starting a startup was expensive, you had to get the permission of investors to do it. Now the only threshold is courage.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Global startup formation exploded 2010s-2020s; YC alone went from ~40 cos/batch in 2007 to 200+/batch by 2021.