— Topic —

    VC Trends

    9 receipts tracked • 79% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    9 receipts on VC Trends

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    RECEIPT #DEVIN-

    JAN 21, 2026

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Devin Ryan
    We apply some similar parallels to the kind of adoption that we saw in products like options in the early days and the amount of penetration we saw early on and that gets us to the multiples of the dollar value that is being transacted today. We are in the very early days; people are focused on sports because that is where the activity is. I think that is missing the bigger picture. The bigger prize is going to be the broader prediction markets around things that influence the economy or companies.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Prediction markets continue to grow, with new platforms and increasing interest from investors and businesses exploring their use beyond sports betting. However, the extent of broader economic and corporate influence is still developing, and regulatory challenges persist. This prediction is evolving as the market matures and its applications expand.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    International Banker

    RECEIPT #GALLOW

    JAN 11, 2019

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Scott Galloway
    Amazon begins a march toward becoming the most valuable healthcare company in the world. Upon introduction of the service… Amazon records the greatest single-day appreciation of any company in history.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Amazon bought PillPack (2018) and One Medical ($3.9B, 2022) and launched Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Clinic — but is nowhere near the most valuable healthcare company. UNH, LLY, and JNJ remain dominant.

    RECEIPT #PG-LOT

    OCT 01, 2007

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Paul Graham
    My first prediction about the future of web startups is pretty straightforward: there will be a lot of them. When starting a startup was expensive, you had to get the permission of investors to do it. Now the only threshold is courage.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Global startup formation exploded 2010s-2020s; YC alone went from ~40 cos/batch in 2007 to 200+/batch by 2021.

    RECEIPT #ANDREE

    AUG 20, 2011

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Marc Andreessen
    Health care and education, in my view, are next up for fundamental software-based transformation… both are primed for tipping by great new software-centric entrepreneurs.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Telehealth and edtech exploded post-2020 (Teladoc, Coursera, Duolingo IPOs), but 'fundamental transformation' of US healthcare and K-12 remains uneven.

    RECEIPT #OWYANG

    DEC 10, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jeremiah Owyang
    Startups will increasingly adopt "AI-paced scaling" — staying lean by using AI to handle work historically requiring large headcount.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Confirmed by 2025 trend of "tiny team, huge revenue" AI-native startups (Cursor, Midjourney, ElevenLabs reaching massive ARR with <100 staff).

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Web Strategist

    RECEIPT #OWYANG

    JAN 22, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jeremiah Owyang
    Expect a meaningful AI funding correction in 2026 as foundation-model economics force consolidation.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Mixed signals through Q1 2026: late-stage AI valuations softening but mega-rounds continue at the frontier.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Web Strategist

    RECEIPT #OWYANG

    NOV 04, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jeremiah Owyang
    A new software category — AROW (Agent Relationship Optimization Workflow) — will emerge to help brands manage relationships with AI agents.

    FOLLOW-UP

    While the specific 'AROW' category did not emerge, the underlying need for managing and optimizing workflows with AI agents materialized as 'Multi-Agent Workflow Optimization (MAWO)', as evidenced by the rise of multi-agent systems in enterprise processes.