The short version

Devin Ryan predicted on January 21, 2026: “We apply some similar parallels to the kind of adoption that we saw in products like options in the early days and the amount of penetration we saw early on and that gets us to the multiples of the dollar value that is being transacted today. We are in the very early days;…

Prediction by

Devin Ryan

On January 21, 2026

“We apply some similar parallels to the kind of adoption that we saw in products like options in the early days and the amount of penetration we saw early on and that gets us to the multiples of the dollar value that is being transacted today. We are in the very early days; people are focused on sports because that is where the activity is. I think that is missing the bigger picture. The bigger prize is going to be the broader prediction markets around things that influence the economy or companies.””

Follow-up

Ryan argued that prediction markets' bigger prize would be events affecting companies and the economy, beyond sports. Pew's September 2026 analysis found trading volume had surged, but sports was still the largest category on both major platforms and drove most of the May-July increase. Broader economic and corporate adoption remains unproven; keep tracking it.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.