— Topic —
5 receipts tracked • 20% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #CHAMAT
DEC 17, 2020
PREDICTION BY
Chamath Palihapitiya“I'm the next Warren Buffett.”
FOLLOW-UP
Chamath crowned himself the next Buffett at the SPAC peak. His IPOA-F vehicles (Clover, Opendoor, SoFi, Virgin Galactic) collectively destroyed billions in retail wealth by 2023; he wound down the SPAC franchise in 2022.
RECEIPT #CRAMER
MAR 11, 2008
PREDICTION BY
Jim Cramer“Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out. ... Bear Stearns is not in trouble.”
FOLLOW-UP
Cramer told a viewer on March 11, 2008 that Bear Stearns was fine. Five days later JPMorgan acquired Bear for $2/share in a Fed-backed fire sale. Iconic bad call.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CNBCRECEIPT #CRAMER
OCT 27, 2022
PREDICTION BY
Jim Cramer“Meta is no longer investable. ... I trusted this management team. That was ill-advised.”
FOLLOW-UP
Cramer declared Meta uninvestable at ~$97/share in Oct 2022. Stock then ran from ~$90 to over $700 by 2024 — one of the great recoveries of the decade. Inverse-Cramer at its purest.
RECEIPT #CHAMAT
FEB 22, 2021
PREDICTION BY
Chamath Palihapitiya“Bitcoin will probably get to $200,000, then a million dollars, in the next decade.”
FOLLOW-UP
Bitcoin reached $126,198.07 by October 2025, partially fulfilling the prediction of reaching $200,000 within a decade. However, it did not sustain that level and fell short of the $200,000 target by early May 2026, while the $1 million target remains unresolved.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CNBCRECEIPT #BILL-A
JUN 03, 2015
PREDICTION BY
Bill Ackman“Herbalife will implode "no later than March of 2016" when its "debt comes due."”
FOLLOW-UP
Herbalife did not implode by March 2016. It restructured debt and settled with the FTC, and its stock rose, leading to significant losses for Ackman's short position, which he closed in 2018. The company did face regulatory scrutiny and a large settlement, indicating some accuracy in the 'fraud' claims, but not total 'implosion'.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Observer