— Topic —
5 receipts tracked • 90% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #WIESER
NOV 26, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Pivotal's Wieser revises ad outlooks upward, citing strong economic indicators — global advertising will grow faster than previously forecast through 2019.”
FOLLOW-UP
GroupM (which Wieser later joined) downgraded the same forecast 4 months later as USD strength and macro caught up. 2019 ad growth came in below the upward revision.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
MediaPostRECEIPT #KAWAJA
NOV 14, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Terry Kawaja“2025 is going to be an excellent year for digital advertising — multiple economic indicators point toward growth and M&A activity is set to rebound after a decade-long low in 2023.”
FOLLOW-UP
The prediction came true as digital ad spending surged past $750 billion worldwide in 2025, confirmed by multiple reports (eMarketer, Oberlo, Dentsu), indicating significant growth. M&A activity also showed a rebound, as noted by IAB's outlook.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Beet.TVRECEIPT #ROUBIN
SEP 07, 2006
PREDICTION BY
Nouriel Roubini“There is a risk that the U.S. growth slowdown that we are observing right now this year is going to end up in recession by early next year. So we're going to have a hard landing rather than the soft landing that most people believe.”
FOLLOW-UP
NBER dated the Great Recession to December 2007 — Roubini was about a year early but directionally correct, and the call was famously contrarian at the time.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
IMF / EconoMonitorEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #ROUBIN
SEP 07, 2006
PREDICTION BY
Nouriel Roubini“I believe for a number of reasons that the world is not going to decouple from a U.S. hard landing. As they say, when the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.”
FOLLOW-UP
The 2008-09 crisis was global — Europe, Japan, and EM all contracted; 'decoupling' thesis collapsed.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
IMF / EconoMonitorRECEIPT #ROUBIN
SEP 07, 2006
PREDICTION BY
Nouriel Roubini“Even if the Fed were to start easing to avoid a recession, in my view it is not going to prevent the recession.”
FOLLOW-UP
Fed cut from 5.25% to 0% by Dec 2008 — recession came anyway and proved deeper than 2001.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
IMF / EconoMonitorEVIDENCE
