The short version

Nouriel Roubini predicted on September 7, 2006: “There is a risk that the U.S. growth slowdown that we are observing right now this year is going to end up in recession by early next year. So we're going to have a hard landing rather than the soft landing that most people believe.” Verdict: Called it. NBER dated the Great Recession…

Prediction by

Nouriel Roubini

On September 7, 2006

“There is a risk that the U.S. growth slowdown that we are observing right now this year is going to end up in recession by early next year. So we're going to have a hard landing rather than the soft landing that most people believe.”

Follow-up

NBER dated the Great Recession to December 2007 — Roubini was about a year early but directionally correct, and the call was famously contrarian at the time.

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