— Topic —

    Consumer Behavior

    8 receipts tracked • 67% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    8 receipts on Consumer Behavior

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    RECEIPT #JOSH-G

    DEC 11, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Josh Golden
    “My Hot Take: The return of the physical! ... 2025 will also be the year of The Endowment Effect. ... So watch for a move towards more physical, experiential, in-person and collaborative marketing ‘wow’ moments, as well as things like direct mail and the return of the catalog continued.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Called it, then built the proof. Golden turned the thesis into Quad and The Harris Poll's "Return of Touch" research (May 2025), which documented consumers craving tactile brand experiences and drew coverage from ad trades to NBC News. Direct mail and catalogs kept their comeback through 2025, and LinkedIn News put Return of Touch in its 25 Big Ideas for 2026.

    RECEIPT #JOSH-G

    DEC 20, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Josh Golden
    “As we head into 2026, consumers will be asking for more in-person connections and more physical touchpoints with brands. From curated catalogs and sleek packaging to retail and real-world experiences that invite people to slow down and engage. ... Return ON Touch might just be the new ROI.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The 2026 sequel to his (correct) 2025 "return of the physical" call. Test window is open through 2026 - recheck with year-end retail and experiential-marketing data and whether "Return On Touch" gets formalized as a metric.

    RECEIPT #CORY-T

    NOV 04, 2020

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Treffiletti
    “My prediction for 2021 is that business will continue to go digital and retail stores will continue to change or shutter. I think retail may actually shrink in terms of individual footprint, and stores will become "way stations" for exchanges and appointment shopping. ... malls will have to cut individual stores in half, increase occupancy and look at more experiential ways to use the space.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Half right. Business did keep going digital - but the store-as-"way station" future never arrived. Five years on, e-commerce is still only 16.4% of US retail sales (US Census, full-year 2025), appointment shopping stayed a pandemic-era blip, and malls did not halve their stores. The physical store kept its place at the center of retail.

    RECEIPT #GARTNE

    JAN 03, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Gartner
    “By 2025, 50% of consumers will significantly limit or abandon social media due to perceived decay in quality, including GenAI integration (70%+ see harm to user experience).”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Recent user discussions in December 2023 validate Gartner's forecast of a 50% reduction in social media usage by 2025, with trends materializing faster than anticipated, although concrete 2025 statistics are not yet available.

    RECEIPT #COLIN-

    APR 28, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Colin Jeavons
    “But there's no question that a well-intentioned influencer with high integrity and testing the products they recommend is going to drive higher sales and conversions of those products than someone that's just, you know, switching left on every product that they put in place. But you know back to the bottom line the bottom line is are consumers going to like it? Will they already do and you know will they consume more of it? I think will and will they end up buying more products? I think they will.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    RECEIPT #ROSIE-

    JAN 01, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Rosie O'Meara
    “In the distant future, O'Meara said she was excited for the day people get used to making big purchases through their TVs. She reminded the crowd how we used to be weary of making big ticket purchase on our phone, and now it's second nature. That same adoption can happen with CTV, which is excellent news for advertisers.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.