— Topic —
13 receipts tracked • 63% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“TikTok Stays... Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.cmswire.comRECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CMSWireRECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“TikTok Stays... Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.cmswire.comRECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CMSWireRECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“These social networks are sacrificing urgency for engagement, and there’s a hidden cost to that. ... the 'global town squares’ of ol’ will start feel less relevant to important, global events.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CMSWireRECEIPT #GARTNE
JAN 03, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Gartner“By 2025, 50% of consumers will significantly limit or abandon social media due to perceived decay in quality, including GenAI integration (70%+ see harm to user experience).”
FOLLOW-UP
Recent user discussions in December 2023 validate Gartner's forecast of a 50% reduction in social media usage by 2025, with trends materializing faster than anticipated, although concrete 2025 statistics are not yet available.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Marketing Tech NewsRECEIPT #SLOANE
FEB 25, 2021
PREDICTION BY
Garett Sloane“TikTok will be the next great ad platform. The brands that figure it out in 2021 will be the winners of the next five years.”
FOLLOW-UP
Sloane's early-2021 call. TikTok ad revenue grew from ~$4B (2021) to ~$20B (2024); brands like e.l.f., Duolingo, CeraVe built the playbook he predicted.
RECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“Social Media Starts to Feel Less Relevant... There will be some exceptions, but the "‘global town squares’ of ol’" will start feel less relevant to important, global events.”
FOLLOW-UP
The prediction came true as engagement rates on major social media platforms collapsed, and users migrated to private spaces, making "global town squares" less relevant as suggested.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CMSWireRECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“Bluesky Hype Fades... I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CMSWireRECEIPT #ALEX-K
DEC 23, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Alex Kantrowitz“TikTok Stays... To me, the most likely scenario, is Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”
FOLLOW-UP
TikTok did not stay in the U.S. solely by walling off U.S. data, as courts rejected this measure. Instead, a qualified divestiture was mandated and is in progress via a joint venture with majority U.S. ownership, as evidenced by Executive Order 14310 and the Supreme Court upholding the law without data-wall exceptions.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CMSWireRECEIPT #ELON-M
JUL 23, 2023
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“X is the future state of unlimited interactivity — centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking — creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities.”
FOLLOW-UP
This prediction is too early to assess as the specified timeframe of 2026 has not yet arrived, and the provided evidence does not cover the relevant period for X's development.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter), July 2023RECEIPT #PETER-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Peter Shankman“I think the number one reason is for parents is we don't think it's that dangerous, so we let them on. Uh and the second reason is because they can create these Pinterest boards that are only viewable by their friends that we've approved to be on to be their friends.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
RECEIPT #PETER-
APR 28, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Peter Shankman“My kids see very little value in social. They don't they don't they're much more private than um than we were even 10 years ago.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
