Pundit
Alex Kantrowitz
36 receipts • Tracked since Apr 2026
Founder, Big Technology newsletter and podcast. Former senior tech reporter at BuzzFeed News.
Affiliations
No firm affiliations on record.
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36 receipts
2026
4 predictions- Jun 23, 2026Too early to tell.“Ideas are what matter. Execution is being automated, but ideas are what matter.”
As of June 2026, this prediction is still in early stages of verification. While AI is automating many tasks, the degree to which 'ideas' are universally recognized as the sole differentiator, and 'execution' is fully automated, is an ongoing development. This will need more time to assess.
- Jun 23, 2026Too early to tell.“There's something that you cannot replace with a machine, there's something human and connective about it. That will continue to be a very important medium no matter how much AI slop, or AI masterpieces, flood the system.”
This prediction is evolving and will take time to fully assess. While human connection remains vital, the extent to which AI 'slop' or 'masterpieces' will challenge or redefine 'important mediums' is still being determined by June 2026.
- Jun 23, 2026Too early to tell.“If you say, this is a new technology, I don't understand it, I don't want to use it, I'm gonna stick to my processes, it can't help me — you're in trouble.”
It is too early to definitively say if every individual or business that resists AI adoption will be 'in trouble' by June 2026, as the full impact and timeline of AI integration across all industries are still unfolding.
- Mar 9, 2026Too early to tell.“We have some revenue numbers for OpenAI and Anthropic. Uh and we come back to these numbers again and again because they give us a a way to look into the state of the AI adoption and the business and where things are going and also they they just move so fast so quickly uh that it's important to stay on top of them. So here this is from the information. OpenAI tops 25 billion in annualized revenue as anthropic narrows the gap. OpenAI topped topped 25 billion in annualized revenue at the end of last month. That's a 17% increase from the 21.4 billion in annualized revenue the company was generating at the end of the year. OpenAI is still gener generating more revenue than its younger rival Anthropic. Though the difference between the arch rivals has been narrowing. Anthropic annualized revenue recently topped 19 billion up nearly three times from the end of last year and up 36% from 2 weeks ago. Uh so we have basically these two companies who were doing zero in 2022 are now doing 40 billion plus in annualized revenue in 2026.”
The prediction is about current and near-future revenue figures of OpenAI and Anthropic. While some figures are mentioned as current as of the upload date, the overall context discusses the rapid and ongoing growth, looking at 'where things are going'. The specific annual revenue for 2026 cannot be fully verified until the end of 2026.
2025
2 predictions- Feb 4, 2025Too early to tell.“this company is far ahead of everybody else in AI being applied to bioscience... maybe there's just a 10% chance that they can get that right or 20% uh then that's a very very big business for Google moving forward”
Kantrowitz suggests a significant future for Google's AI in bioscience, potentially revolutionizing drug development if they succeed with a 'virtual cell' in a few years. It's too early to judge the success of this long-term endeavor.
- Jun 27, 2025Story still evolving.“A half-decade in, Big Technology is alive and kicking. Journalism leads, it takes a village, and YouTube and ChatGPT are surprising new sources of growth.”
Big Technology continues to operate as a multi-platform media property, using YouTube and AI tools. Broader trends in independent media and creator businesses validate the use of AI tools and YouTube as growth channels.
2024
29 predictions- Jan 1, 2024Called it.“AI has a public relations emergency — and it's getting worse. AI has a marketing problem: nobody wants the data center nearby. The hidden AI setting that could put customer trust at risk.”
Public and regulatory scrutiny over AI, local community resistance to data centers, and increased focus on AI disclosure and privacy in enterprise tech all aligned with the prediction of intensifying PR and trust issues for AI.
- Jan 1, 2024Called it.“You cannot replace urgency, a sense of urgency with AI. You cannot replace what's going on in the moment with AI. So to me, I think one of the categories that's going to be more valuable than ever is news.”
Industry commentary and publisher strategies in 2024-2026 supported the idea that real-time, verified news and financial information increased in relative value amid AI-generated content, with publishers investing in direct audience relationships.
- Jan 1, 2024Called it.“What you're going to see this year is, and we saw a lot of it last year too, is like the Perplexities and the Googles of the world, just signing deals with news publishers, and maybe smaller publications like us.”
A wave of licensing and partnership agreements occurred between AI/search companies (including Google and Perplexity) and news publishers, both large and small, in 2024-2025, matching the predicted direction and timing.
- Jan 1, 2024Called it.“Surprisingly, Google is thriving in the generative AI era. Generative AI boosts Google. Despite the launch of new AI search tools, Google maintains a commanding lead in the global search market.”
Google maintained search dominance, showed strong stock and business performance, and expanded AI-driven products, reinforcing its position in the AI era.
- Jan 1, 2024Called it.“The chatbots and agents are going to merge.”
Major tech and CX platforms moved toward integrated 'agentic' systems where chat interfaces can take autonomous actions, aligning with the prediction of functional merging.
- Jul 1, 2024Called it.“2024 was kind of horrible year... for the institutional media.”
2024 saw significant layoffs, financial stress, and consolidation within institutional media, consistent with a "horrible year" for the sector.
- Jul 1, 2024Called it.“Yes, so I think that the existing bots are definitely going to get more traction.”
Existing AI chatbots (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc.) have gained substantial traction in both consumer and enterprise use cases throughout 2024 and beyond.
- Jul 1, 2024Partially right.“everyone is aware that search is going to change and search will be offloaded to AI conversational search engines, or Google will have to just change completely, which changes their business model.”
Search has indeed been increasingly "offloaded to AI" and Google has adapted its search product and monetization, though the business model has evolved rather than "completely" changed.
- Apr 9, 2024Called it.“Big Tech’s Alex Kantrowitz doesn’t believe Google or Intel’s chips will cut into Nvidia’s lead.”
As of late 2024 and mid-2025, Nvidia has maintained its dominant market position in AI accelerators, with high demand for its GPUs. Google and Intel's offerings have not significantly eroded Nvidia's lead in the way some had predicted. Nvidia's revenue and market performance support this outcome.
- Jul 31, 2024Called it.“If not dead, Google was supposed to be in a tailspin by now. The rise of generative AI promised new, improved ways to seek and investigate information online. And the old keeper of blue links was meant to be on borrowed time. Except it hasn’t worked out that way — at least not yet. Google today is thriving. It’s turned in double-digit percentage sales growth this year and hasn’t given up its dominant lead in search.”
Google has continued to perform well in the generative AI era, maintaining its dominance in search and experiencing significant growth in its cloud business, as of the article's publication date.
- Jul 31, 2024Called it.“But so far, Google’s made it through the first generative AI wave with far less damage than anticipated. And now it may be moving forward from a position of strength. [...] Generative AI technology, meanwhile, is boosting Google’s cloud services unit as enterprises try to unlock its value.”
Kantrowitz's assessment that Google would navigate the initial generative AI wave largely unscathed, emerging from a 'position of strength' bolstered by AI-driven cloud growth, was substantiated by financial and market data through 2025. Google's dominant position in search and advertising remained unchallenged, and Google Cloud continued to thrive due to escalating interest in generative AI.
- Jul 31, 2024Called it.“Except it hasn’t worked out that way — at least not yet. Google today is thriving. It’s turned in double-digit percentage sales growth this year and hasn’t given up its dominant lead in search. Its cloud business just hit $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time, partly thanks to a surge in generative AI interest. Over the past year, it’s been a better investment than Microsoft, the consensus AI leader. Google’s stock is up 37% across the past twelve months against Microsoft’s 19%, and it leads Microsoft 21% to 12% year to date. Generative AI technology, meanwhile, is boosting Google’s cloud services unit as enterprises try to unlock its value. But so far, Google’s made it through the first generative AI wave with far less damage than anticipated. And now it may be moving forward from a position of strength.”
Google maintained dominant search market share, grew ad/search revenues, and saw cloud revenues aided by generative AI demand, positioning itself as a leading beneficiary of the generative AI cycle.
- Dec 23, 2024Called it.“Social Media Starts to Feel Less Relevant Over the past few years, social networks have done two big things: 1) Divided their audiences up among more players, and 2) Moved away from news. Apps you once used to find out what was going on in your community, country and around the world started to ignore your follow signal and began showing you what they thought you’d spend time with. Out went the local reporter, in came the Costco guys. These social networks are sacrificing urgency for engagement, and there’s a hidden cost to that. There will be some exceptions, but the “'global town squares' of ol'” will start feel less relevant to important, global events.”
Fragmentation and deprioritization of news continued on major social platforms, with algorithmic feeds emphasizing entertainment over news. Information habits for global events became multi-platform, diluting the centrality of traditional 'town squares.'
- Dec 23, 2024Partially right.“2025: Year of the Brain Computer Interface Noland Arbaugh became Neuralink’s first patient in January 2024, and the company has since done at least one more implantation with plans to expand further in 2025. Next year, we’ll meet many more Noland Arbaughs and the technology will begin to capture the popular imagination. Other companies outside Neuralink will push the boundaries even further. The concept of restoring vision in the blind will have people buzzing.”
BCI made visible progress and received more mainstream coverage, with Neuralink and peers expanding activity. However, BCI didn't dominate tech discourse in 2025 to the extent implied by 'year of the brain computer interface,' with AI and agentic systems overshadowing it.
- Dec 23, 2024Partially right.“Generative AI skepticism rises. 2025 could see major companies publicly abandoning generative AI projects after ROI fails to meet expectations.”
Skepticism about generative AI ROI did increase, and some big companies pulled back from specific projects. However, wholesale public abandonment of generative AI by 'major companies' was rarer, with most narrowing scope or moving to more cost-disciplined phases rather than exiting entirely.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“TikTok Stays... Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“TikTok Stays... Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“Mustafa Suleyman Leaves Microsoft... it wouldn’t be a shock if he exits in 2025.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“Mustafa Suleyman Leaves Microsoft... it wouldn’t be a shock if he exits in 2025.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“These social networks are sacrificing urgency for engagement, and there’s a hidden cost to that. ... the 'global town squares’ of ol’ will start feel less relevant to important, global events.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“And at least one company that’s tried and failed to get GenAI to work will vocally give up on it in a front page news story.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Called it.“Social Media Starts to Feel Less Relevant... There will be some exceptions, but the "‘global town squares’ of ol’" will start feel less relevant to important, global events.”
The prediction came true as engagement rates on major social media platforms collapsed, and users migrated to private spaces, making "global town squares" less relevant as suggested.
- Dec 23, 2024Too early to tell.“Bluesky Hype Fades... I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”
Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.
- Dec 23, 2024Missed it.“TikTok Stays... To me, the most likely scenario, is Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”
TikTok did not stay in the U.S. solely by walling off U.S. data, as courts rejected this measure. Instead, a qualified divestiture was mandated and is in progress via a joint venture with majority U.S. ownership, as evidenced by Executive Order 14310 and the Supreme Court upholding the law without data-wall exceptions.
- Dec 23, 2024Missed it.“Mustafa Suleyman Leaves Microsoft... Suleyman is an impressive, driven leader, but it’s fair to wonder whether Microsoft actually just needs an integrator to build OpenAI’s latest technology into its products. Already, reports have indicated that Suleyman’s team has clashed with OpenAI, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he exits in 2025.”
Mustafa Suleyman did not leave Microsoft in 2025 as predicted; instead, he remained CEO of Microsoft AI, actively involved in strategic initiatives, with a leadership restructuring only shifting some of his day-to-day responsibilities, not his employment status.
- Dec 23, 2024Missed it.“A Prominent Company (or Two) Will Loudly Give up on Generative AI... at least one company that’s tried and failed to get GenAI to work will vocally give up on it in a front page news story.”
The prediction failed, as no prominent company loudly or vocally gave up on generative AI in a front-page news story by May 2025. Instead, evidence indicates strong industry momentum through high revenue run rates and continued focus on AI productivity among leading companies.
- Dec 23, 2024Partially right.“2025: Year of the Brain Computer Interface... Next year, we’ll meet many more Noland Arbaughs and the technology will begin to capture the popular imagination.”
Kantrowitz's prediction was partially right as BCIs captured significant technological and media attention with new product announcements and market growth, but the evidence does not show that "many more Noland Arbaughs" emerged as public figures.
2023
1 prediction- Feb 9, 2023Partially right.“AI chatbots will disrupt Google search advertising. Not in 5 years — sooner. The behavioral shift is already happening.”
Kantrowitz called LLMs as a Google threat early. By 2025 Google search share dropped below 90% for first time in a decade and rolled out AI Overviews defensively, but core ad revenue still grew. Real but slower than predicted.