— Topic —

    Brands

    4 receipts tracked • 50% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    4 receipts on Brands

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    RECEIPT #JOSH-G

    DEC 11, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Josh Golden
    “My Hot Take: The return of the physical! ... 2025 will also be the year of The Endowment Effect. ... So watch for a move towards more physical, experiential, in-person and collaborative marketing ‘wow’ moments, as well as things like direct mail and the return of the catalog continued.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Called it, then built the proof. Golden turned the thesis into Quad and The Harris Poll's "Return of Touch" research (May 2025), which documented consumers craving tactile brand experiences and drew coverage from ad trades to NBC News. Direct mail and catalogs kept their comeback through 2025, and LinkedIn News put Return of Touch in its 25 Big Ideas for 2026.

    RECEIPT #JOSH-G

    DEC 20, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Josh Golden
    “As we head into 2026, consumers will be asking for more in-person connections and more physical touchpoints with brands. From curated catalogs and sleek packaging to retail and real-world experiences that invite people to slow down and engage. ... Return ON Touch might just be the new ROI.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The 2026 sequel to his (correct) 2025 "return of the physical" call. Test window is open through 2026 - recheck with year-end retail and experiential-marketing data and whether "Return On Touch" gets formalized as a metric.

    RECEIPT #KEITH-

    FEB 12, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Keith Weed
    “As one of the largest advertisers in the world, we cannot have an environment where our consumers don't trust what they see online.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Partially right. Weed threatened to withdraw Unilever advertising from platforms that "create division in society and promote anger and hate" and called parts of the digital supply chain "little better than a swamp". Unilever kept spending on Google and Facebook through 2018-19; the threat only became action in mid-2020, when Unilever paused US ads on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter for the rest of that year - then returned in January 2021. Brand safety did become a board-level issue and platforms tightened policies, but the sweeping pull-back never happened at scale.

    RECEIPT #LEO-MO

    APR 07, 2022

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Leo Morejon
    “there are gonna be almost boundless opportunities for brands very, very, very shortly.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction that there would be "almost boundless opportunities for brands very, very, very shortly" after April 7, 2022, clearly failed, as brands faced significant economic headwinds including high inflation, supply chain disruptions, and slowed advertising spend growth through 2023-2024.