— Topic —

    Commerce

    2 receipts tracked • 75% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    2 receipts on Commerce

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    RECEIPT #CORY-T

    NOV 04, 2020

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Treffiletti
    “My prediction for 2021 is that business will continue to go digital and retail stores will continue to change or shutter. I think retail may actually shrink in terms of individual footprint, and stores will become "way stations" for exchanges and appointment shopping. ... malls will have to cut individual stores in half, increase occupancy and look at more experiential ways to use the space.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Half right. Business did keep going digital - but the store-as-"way station" future never arrived. Five years on, e-commerce is still only 16.4% of US retail sales (US Census, full-year 2025), appointment shopping stayed a pandemic-era blip, and malls did not halve their stores. The physical store kept its place at the center of retail.

    RECEIPT #ARI-PA

    JUN 04, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    “I’m here to tell you this is not happening anytime soon.” ... “The idea that autonomous agents will replace most consumer shopping in the next few years is a fantasy. It misunderstands how people shop, how incentives work in advertising, and how slowly behavior actually changes.” ... “But agentic commerce becoming the dominant way people buy things is, at best, a very long‑term story – decades, not years.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Between mid-2024 and early 2026, AI shopping agents have not become a primary or dominant mode of commerce, consistent with Paparo's prediction that it would not happen anytime soon.