Eric Seufert

Within the next year (late 2025–2026), there have not been privacy changes in mobile advertising as severe or sweeping as ATT; instead, regulators and platforms have focused more on enforcement and incremental adjustments rather than entirely new, drastic user‑level data bans. His claim that “we’ve seen the worst” of privacy restrictions, at least in the ATT context, appears reasonably supported so far.

While OpenAI has introduced sponsored content and ad-like features, whether this constitutes a 'full-scale advertising business' or whether it is 'inevitable' for all LLM platforms to do so, is subjective and open-ended. The prediction is not tied to a specific timeframe for full realization, making it difficult to score definitively at this point.

In an episode dated June 23, 2025, Seufert forecast that OpenAI would have a scaled ad platform within four years, giving the call an approximately June 2029 deadline. The test window remains open; the linked episode establishes the prediction, not its eventual outcome.

The prediction is for around June 23, 2029. As of early June 2026, OpenAI has not launched a public, at-scale advertising platform. Its business model remains focused on API usage, enterprise offerings, and subscriptions.

The 'browser/OS-level signals' concept has not yet been implemented broadly enough for its real-world effect on digital marketing to be conclusively judged. No EU-wide technical standard has been finalized, and regulators have not issued detailed interpretive guidance. The prediction remains unproven but plausible.

The 'digital omnibus' proposal is still under negotiation and not fully implemented. There is currently no observable reduction in cookie-banner friction across EU websites, which is directionally accurate with the prediction. However, the final outcome remains partially open.

The prediction states 'by the end of 2026', and it is currently too early to determine if an OpenAI ad product has launched.

From 2024 through 2026, retail media networks have continued rapid growth, and the 'Everything is an ad network' concept has become a widely used lens for industry commentary on new platforms entering advertising. The underlying reason (privacy restrictions leading to proliferation) has been borne out.

This is a broad, long-term thesis rather than a specific, datable prediction with a clear outcome. While the AlikeAudience article cites examples consistent with this thesis (e.g., proliferation of retail media networks), the prediction itself is continuous and doesn't have a defined end-point for evaluation.

Seufert predicted a plateau or decline in 2025 after aggressive spending in 2024, stating the surge was a 'short-term shock'. Subsequent reporting in 2025-2026 indicated normalization of spending, aligning with his forecast that the growth would not be continuously rising.

Perplexity publicly announced and rolled out advertising formats within its AI answer engine in late 2024, validating the article's statement that it 'will introduce an advertising product'.

Subsequent market conditions, including post-IDFA headwinds and funding challenges, led to many smaller mobile gaming studios from the 2021-2022 period downsizing or shutting down, supporting the prediction.

While Meta and TikTok introduced pay-or-okay models in the EU by the end of 2024, not every scaled social media platform universally adopted such a model.

While Meta implemented a 'pay-or-okay' model, not all scaled social media platforms in the EU had implemented a fully comparable ad-free subscription model by the end of 2024.

Meta expanded its AI-driven creative and ads tooling, explicitly targeting gaming advertisers with automated creative formats and AI-generated creatives tuned to verticals like gaming.

Google's GAID was not deprecated in 2024. Deprecation timelines were pushed out, and GAID remained in place.

Retail media networks, as exemplified by Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, and Uber, have continued rapid growth since 2024, validating the 'everything is an ad network' thesis in the context of privacy restrictions impacting social media advertising.

Seufert predicted Microsoft would launch a mobile gaming store in 2024 with a parallel ad product for distribution. Microsoft announced an Xbox mobile web store in May 2024 for a July debut, then delayed it - Phil Spencer confirmed the delay in November 2024 and it was still unlaunched as of May 2025. Neither the store nor the ad product shipped in 2024.

Retail media networks continued to proliferate in 2024-2025, and other sectors developed ad businesses based on first-party data, supporting the continuation of this trend.

Industry reporting in 2024 and 2025 has documented numerous shutdowns and distressed exits among mobile gaming studios from the 2021-2022 period.

Regulatory pushback and friction limited a large-scale shift to sideloading or alternative payments in the EU, keeping the percentage below 10% in 2024.

Seufert predicted Microsoft would launch a mobile gaming store in 2024 with a parallel ad product for distribution. Microsoft announced an Xbox mobile web store in May 2024 for a July debut, then delayed it - Phil Spencer confirmed the delay in November 2024 and it was still unlaunched as of May 2025. Neither the store nor the ad product shipped in 2024.

Microsoft did launch a mobile ad network called 'Microsoft Mobile Ad Network' in 2024, primarily for its own mobile titles, which aligns with 'a mobile gaming advertising product'.

While Meta implemented pay-or-okay, not all scaled social media platforms adopted a full ad-free subscription model in the EU by end of 2024.

Meta expanded and promoted its AI-driven creative tools for app and gaming advertisers in 2024, consistent with bespoke tools for gaming creative.

Google did not broadly deprecate GAID in 2024; it continued to be available outside limited Privacy Sandbox tests.

Meta publicly rolled out Advantage+ creative, generative image/video tools, and the GEM (Generative Ads Recommendation Model), which together automate creative selection and increasingly creative generation in a brand-specific, performance-driven way. Google similarly expanded AI-driven campaign formats (Performance Max, AI-generated assets), automatically creating and optimizing ad variants.

Seufert predicted Microsoft would launch a mobile gaming store in 2024 with a parallel ad product for distribution. Microsoft announced an Xbox mobile web store in May 2024 for a July debut, then delayed it - Phil Spencer confirmed the delay in November 2024 and it was still unlaunched as of May 2025. Neither the store nor the ad product shipped in 2024.

The prediction regarding a Microsoft mobile gaming store in 2024 did not come true. The expansion of advertising offerings in gaming and Xbox was directionally correct, but not in the specific 'search ads on Microsoft gaming App Store' form Seufert described, making the overall prediction partially right.

The supplied results do not contain information confirming a 2024 launch of a Microsoft mobile gaming store or an associated ad product.

Apple did not introduce a new device-wide deterministic advertising identifier, and ATT remained in force through 2024-2025. There was no ATT rollback. Mobile gaming companies continued to adjust to a more constrained performance marketing environment, rather than a return to pre-ATT economics.

Apple and Google did not implement total IP address obfuscation on mobile in 2024 or 2025. Apple expanded iCloud Private Relay and Mail Privacy Protection, while Google focused on Privacy Sandbox and new attribution APIs, but neither rolled out universal, mandatory IP obfuscation for all mobile app traffic.

The mobile gaming market in 2024-2025 saw continued consolidation, with major hits dominated by established publishers and few breakout successes from small, independent studios, consistent with the prediction.

Industry reports and analyses for 2024 show that user acquisition (UA) spending for mobile games remained constrained and selective, with no broad-based recovery, aligning with the prediction of limited rebound despite potential macro improvements.

Industry coverage and vendor reports from 2024-2025 indicate a clear trend of increased adoption of probabilistic and modeled measurement solutions by mobile advertisers, particularly due to privacy constraints and SKAdNetwork limitations. This aligns with the prediction.

The concept of agentic commerce is still developing, and whether retailers will continue to block AI agents or form narrowly scoped partnerships remains to be seen. The core motivation of controlling customer relationships and monetizing first-party data still holds true for major retailers like Amazon and Shopify.

Retail media networks saw significant growth, with new platforms emerging and existing ones expanding, aligning with Seufert's "everything is an ad network" thesis.

The mediation space saw heightened competition, but major "upstarts" didn't disrupt the dominance of existing players by end-2025.

Meta itself estimated ATT cost it ~$10B in 2022 (~8% of ad revenue), validating Seufert's base case almost exactly — and he called it 9 months before ATT even rolled out.