— Topic —
10 receipts tracked • 90% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #DAVID-
JUL 05, 2011
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“The NASDAQ is going to 5K again as investors bid up valuations of companies participating in this expansion and financials cash in on the boom.”
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jul 5, 2011 (NASDAQ ~2,800). The index reclaimed its dot-com peak and crossed 5,000 on March 2, 2015 — almost exactly the 5-year cycle Levy described — driven by the social/mobile/cloud names he flagged.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JUL 05, 2011
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“Soon everyone will have a smart phone with a data plan… 80% of the 70% that don't have data plans get plans. That means over 130 million new data plans — at $30/month that's almost $50 billion in incremental revenue per year to the carriers.”
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jul 5, 2011 with US smartphone penetration ~30%. Pew put US smartphone ownership at 81% by 2019 and ~90% by 2024; effectively all activated US lines now carry data plans, and US wireless service revenue rose roughly $40–50B over the decade — squarely in the order of magnitude Levy modeled.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JUL 05, 2011
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“Forrester wrote a report in June 2011 forecasting that today's 50 million or so "personal cloud" users will grow to almost 200 million by 2016 driving $12 billion in annual revenue by then… So whatever number you come up with for the personal cloud stuff — double it.”
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jul 5, 2011. By 2016 Dropbox alone had 500M+ registered users and Google Drive 800M+; iCloud, OneDrive, and Google Photos each crossed the hundreds of millions. Personal-cloud user counts blew well past Forrester's 200M estimate, validating Levy's "double it" call.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 07, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“The riskier call: enterprises will hit an adoption tipping point. Why? Because the ROI is too hard to ignore.”
FOLLOW-UP
Levy forecast an enterprise AI adoption tipping point in 2026. McKinsey's November 2025 baseline survey found 88% of respondents reported regular AI use in at least one business function, but only about one-third said their organizations had begun scaling AI across the enterprise. That is a baseline, not evidence that the 2026 tipping point has occurred. The outcome remains open pending a comparable 2026 measure.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 07, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“If 2025 was the Year of the GPU Cloud IPO(s), then 2026 will be the Year of Agentic AI… agentic systems don't just generate more tokens; they generate orders of magnitude more inference events.”
FOLLOW-UP
Levy called 2026 the Year of Agentic AI and predicted that agentic systems would produce orders of magnitude more inference events. The year is still underway. This receipt has no comparable measured event-count series to establish the claimed magnitude, so the outcome remains open.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
APR 30, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“The question wasn't whether OpenAI bought too much compute; it was whether they can generate enough revenue to outrun what they've already committed to. Answer: yep.”
FOLLOW-UP
Filed Apr 30, 2026. Levy argues OpenAI's ~$123B/yr compute commitment can be outrun by exploding workflow volume and rising monetization mix. Outcome will hinge on 2026–2028 ARR vs. capex realization — track against OpenAI revenue disclosures and capex actuals.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 07, 2026
PREDICTION BY
David Levy“In 2026, that pressure will push inference workloads outward into CDNs, edge networks, purpose-built inference platforms, on-prem environments, and on-device.”
FOLLOW-UP
Levy predicts that 2026 will push inference workloads from centralized cloud regions toward CDNs, edge networks, specialist platforms, on-premises systems, and devices. Cloudflare offers Workers AI on its global network, with models running close to users in 200+ cities. That product is directional evidence of edge capacity, not a measurement that inference workloads have shifted at the scale Levy forecast. The 2026 outcome remains open.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #DAVID-
JAN 06, 2025
PREDICTION BY
David LevyParaphrase: Welcome to the Year of the GPU Cloud IPO(s): predicting CoreWeave's IPO and imminent valuation explosion ushering in an AI-related IPO boom.
FOLLOW-UP
Called Jan 6, 2025. CoreWeave IPO'd in March 2025 and ~doubled to ~$80 by year-end; NBIS tripled; APLD/BTBT pivoted to GPU cloud branding; Lambda and Crusoe lined up bankers. Levy's own 2026 retrospective documents the chain of confirmations.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
From the Porch (Substack)RECEIPT #OWYANG
OCT 08, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Jeremiah Owyang“Your company will interact with customer AI Agents: We’ll be dealing with AI agents acting on behalf of customers. ... Agent-run organizations will be your customer and even competitor: Fully autonomous, agent-run entities may someday become both your customers and competitors.”
FOLLOW-UP
AI agents became a new class of customer in B2B contexts, with significant direct engagement as evidenced by Salesforce's Agentforce success, but did not emerge as a distinct consumer-facing customer segment for direct marketing.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Web StrategistRECEIPT #BERKOW
SEP 08, 2023
PREDICTION BY
David Berkowitz“Now, it’s so easy that it feels worthless. And the bigger fear I have is that it will devalue the work that actual authors do. ... But the incentives align with doing more of this questionable behavior, not less.”
FOLLOW-UP
Within weeks, Amazon began requiring authors to disclose AI-generated content and capped self-publishing at three titles a day after a flood of suspected AI-written books. AI-generated books keep coming, and how much they devalue human authors' work is still playing out.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
High Caliber AI