The short version

Michael Nathanson predicted on April 27, 2026: “In my opinion, it’s going to be extremely difficult for OpenAI to be successful in advertising. In fact, I think they may never succeed. So I’m very optimistic about Google and Gemini specifically.” Verdict: Still evolving. As of the mid-2020s, Google continues to derive the vast majority of its revenue from advertising, and…

Prediction by

Michael Nathanson

On April 27, 2026

“In my opinion, it’s going to be extremely difficult for OpenAI to be successful in advertising. In fact, I think they may never succeed. So I’m very optimistic about Google and Gemini specifically.”

Follow-up

As of the mid-2020s, Google continues to derive the vast majority of its revenue from advertising, and has been actively integrating Gemini into its ad products, search experience, and YouTube, reinforcing its strong position in AI-enhanced advertising and supporting Nathanson’s optimism. OpenAI, by contrast, has focused primarily on subscription and enterprise models (e.g., API access, ChatGPT subscriptions, enterprise licenses), with no large-scale, mature display or search advertising business comparable to Google or Meta; this aligns with his view that building a successful ad business around OpenAI’s products would be “extremely difficult.” Whether OpenAI “may never succeed” in advertising is still an open question, but the observable trajectory to date—limited direct ad monetization vs. heavy enterprise/subscription focus—has so far supported his skepticism.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.