In our May 2026 lookback, one prediction already had a verdict: In late 2024, Alex Kantrowitz suggested a prominent company would "loudly give up on Generative AI." By mid-2025, this was a certified miss. The industry showed only strong momentum, with high revenue run rates and a relentless focus on AI productivity. No one was quitting.
Instead, the forecasts we were tracking from early 2026 were all about the money. Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Snider predicted that "AI spending will exceed consensus estimates this year" and that productivity boosts from AI would fuel a continued bull market. The scale of this investment was staggering, with Simona Gambarini citing projections that hyperscaler capex would reach $540 billion in 2026, with trillions more in AI infrastructure spending to follow by 2030.
This flood of capital was met with a powerful current of anxiety about where this was all headed. Historian Yuval Noah Harari warned of a world where inorganic, AI-operated networks could "force us to be always on, always being watched, always being monitored." His concerns escalated into a stark admonition that, if mishandled, AI might "extinguish not only the human domination on earth but the light of consciousness itself." While other theories were more abstract, like John Breeden II's thoughts on simulation theory, the theme of grappling with world-altering technology was clear.
Perhaps Harari himself best captured the spirit of the moment in a separate filing. "If you want to sell something to people today, you call it AI," he noted. It’s a sharp observation that neatly bridges the gap between the bull market and the deeper uncertainty.
**What we're watching**: Most of these financial and philosophical predictions from early 2026 carry a "too_early" verdict. We are still watching to see if the market’s bullishness holds and if the massive capital expenditures translate into the productivity gains forecasted by observers like Snider. And, of course, we are tracking the more somber possibilities raised by Harari. The receipts are filed.