Forecasting ad spend has always been a precarious art, but the last year has shown just how quickly the picture can change. The ink is barely dry on 2024, and we already have a series of revised predictions for both last year and the year to come, all from the same trusted source.
Back in September, analyst Brian Wieser projected that 2024 U.S. ad spend would grow 7.2% over 2023, excluding political advertising. As he put it at the time, this was based on a "much stronger than expected" second quarter (Brian Wieser). By December, however, the situation had improved even further, and Wieser revised his estimate for 2024's total growth up to roughly 9% (Brian Wieser).
Yet, the final numbers required another adjustment. This month, Wieser noted that growth "ended up slowing fairly meaningfully" toward the end of the year, bringing his final estimate for 2024 down to 8.6%. At the same time, he revised his 2025 forecast. Where he had once called for 4.5% growth, he now anticipates a more modest 3.6% (Brian Wieser).
These adjustments aren't dramatic, but they paint a picture of an uncertain market. The shifts, all happening within a few months, show how macroeconomic headwinds and quarterly performance can make fools of even the sharpest analysts.
**What we're watching:** With 2024's books now closed, all eyes are on 2025. We'll be watching to see if Wieser's cautious 3.6% growth forecast holds, or if the market delivers another surprise.