The short version

Ari Paparo predicted on February 1, 2026: “AI search and summaries dramatically reduce traffic to the open web.” Verdict: Still evolving. By mid-2026, AI-enhanced search has expanded, and publishers are reporting concerns and some early evidence of reduced traffic due to AI overviews and summaries. This aligns directionally with the prediction, though the full magnitude and permanence of the effect…

Prediction by

Ari Paparo

On February 1, 2026

“AI search and summaries dramatically reduce traffic to the open web.”

Follow-up

By mid-2026, AI-enhanced search has expanded, and publishers are reporting concerns and some early evidence of reduced traffic due to AI overviews and summaries. This aligns directionally with the prediction, though the full magnitude and permanence of the effect are still debated and evolving.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.