The short version

Brian Wieser predicted on March 18, 2025: “According to Brian Wieser, principal at Madison and Wall, the latest forecast, published today (March 18), places non-political ad spending growth at 3.6% for the year, a notable step down from the 4.5% growth forecast just a few months ago… Yet, as Wieser noted, context matters. A 6.0% growth rate in the fourth…

Prediction by

Brian Wieser

On March 18, 2025

“According to Brian Wieser, principal at Madison and Wall, the latest forecast, published today (March 18), places non-political ad spending growth at 3.6% for the year, a notable step down from the 4.5% growth forecast just a few months ago… Yet, as Wieser noted, context matters. A 6.0% growth rate in the fourth quarter may appear anemic, but when stacked against Q4 2023’s 11.2% surge, the two-year trend is remarkably stable. The third quarter painted a similar picture: a 9.4% gain, cleanly building upon the previous year’s 7.9% growth. The lesson being that even in a cooling market, advertising remains a fundamentally resilient business.”

Follow-up

This forecast concerns full-year 2025. Early indications from big agency forecasts and early 2026 reporting for 2025 U.S. ad spend suggest non-political U.S. ad growth did moderate to low- to mid-single-digits, broadly consistent with Wieser’s 3.6%. Exact full-year 2025 figures are not yet publicly finalized, but the directional prediction matches market evolution.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.