Receipt

    Filed April 29, 2026

    Missed it.

    The short version

    Elon Musk predicted on April 22, 2019: “I'm certain of this. That's not a question mark.” Verdict: Missed it. Elon Musk's prediction that Tesla would achieve "feature-complete full self-driving" by the end of 2019 clearly failed, as evidenced by his admission in January 2020 that they were only "a few months away" and the current status in 2026 requiring human…

    Prediction by

    Elon Musk

    On April 22, 2019

    I'm certain of this. That's not a question mark.

    Follow-up

    Elon Musk's prediction that Tesla would achieve "feature-complete full self-driving" by the end of 2019 clearly failed, as evidenced by his admission in January 2020 that they were only "a few months away" and the current status in 2026 requiring human oversight.

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