We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    Autonomous Vehicles

    3 receipts tracked • 17% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    3 receipts on Autonomous Vehicles

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    RECEIPT #ELON-M

    FEB 19, 2019

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Elon Musk
    “I think we will be feature complete, full self-driving, this year – meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without intervention, this year.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction failed to come true, as both the "feature-complete" FSD by end of 2019 and the ability for drivers to not touch the wheel by Q2 2020 did not materialize, with FSD still requiring supervision years later.

    aiautonomous-vehicles

    RECEIPT #ELON-M

    APR 22, 2019

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Elon Musk
    “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. ... operating robotaxis next year with no one in them.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Elon Musk's prediction of over a million autonomous Tesla robotaxis on the road by "next year for sure" (2020) clearly failed to materialize, as confirmed by Tesla's own records and Wikipedia, with no robotaxi deployments that year. Subsequent predictions for robotaxi functionality also did not come true.

    aiautonomous-vehicles

    RECEIPT #CATHIE

    JAN 01, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cathie Wood
    “ARK believes autonomous platform providers will be roughly 9 times more valuable than the automakers. Likely candidates are Baidu, Alphabet, and Tesla.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    As of early 2026, the combined market cap of Tesla, Alphabet, and Baidu (acting as platform providers) outvalues major automakers by approximately 4-5x, not the predicted 9x. Full Level 5 autonomy is still primarily in pilot phases.

    autonomous-vehicleselectric-vehiclesmaas