We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    Autonomous Vehicles

    5 receipts tracked • 10% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    5 receipts on Autonomous Vehicles

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    RECEIPT #ELON-M

    FEB 19, 2019

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Elon Musk
    “We expect to be feature-complete in self-driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction failed to come true, as both the "feature-complete" FSD by end of 2019 and the ability for drivers to not touch the wheel by Q2 2020 did not materialize, with FSD still requiring supervision years later.

    aiautonomous-vehicles

    RECEIPT #ELON-M

    APR 22, 2019

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Elon Musk
    “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Elon Musk's prediction of over a million autonomous Tesla robotaxis on the road by "next year for sure" (2020) clearly failed to materialize, as confirmed by Tesla's own records and Wikipedia, with no robotaxi deployments that year. Subsequent predictions for robotaxi functionality also did not come true.

    aiautonomous-vehicles

    RECEIPT #ELON-M

    APR 22, 2019

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Elon Musk
    “I'm certain of this. That's not a question mark.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Elon Musk's prediction that Tesla would achieve "feature-complete full self-driving" by the end of 2019 clearly failed, as evidenced by his admission in January 2020 that they were only "a few months away" and the current status in 2026 requiring human oversight.

    aiautonomous-vehicles

    RECEIPT #ELON-M

    JAN 10, 2016

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Elon Musk
    “I think we will do it next year.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction failed, as the cross-country autonomous drive did not occur in 2017 or any time since, and Tesla's full self-driving remains at Level 2 ADAS as of December 2025, far from Level 5 autonomy, according to Wikipedia [4].

    aiautonomous-vehicles

    RECEIPT #CATHIE

    JAN 01, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cathie Wood
    “ARK believes autonomous platform providers will be roughly 9 times more valuable than the automakers. Likely candidates are Baidu, Alphabet, and Tesla.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    As of early 2026, the combined market cap of Tesla, Alphabet, and Baidu (acting as platform providers) outvalues major automakers by approximately 4-5x, not the predicted 9x. Full Level 5 autonomy is still primarily in pilot phases.

    autonomous-vehicleselectric-vehiclesmaas