We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    Electric Vehicles

    4 receipts tracked • 50% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    4 receipts on Electric Vehicles

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    RECEIPT #CATHIE

    JAN 01, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cathie Wood
    “…the demand for EVs should be orders of magnitude higher than current forecasts.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Global EV sales increased significantly from ~2 million in 2018 to ~18 million in 2025 (a 9x increase), exceeding many pre-2018 forecasts. However, the 'orders of magnitude' claim (implying a 10x+ increase) has not been fully met, with EV penetration at about 20% of new car sales by 2025, rather than a more rapid acceleration.

    electric-vehicles

    RECEIPT #CATHIE

    JAN 01, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cathie Wood
    “ARK believes autonomous platform providers will be roughly 9 times more valuable than the automakers. Likely candidates are Baidu, Alphabet, and Tesla.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    As of early 2026, the combined market cap of Tesla, Alphabet, and Baidu (acting as platform providers) outvalues major automakers by approximately 4-5x, not the predicted 9x. Full Level 5 autonomy is still primarily in pilot phases.

    autonomous-vehicleselectric-vehiclesmaas

    RECEIPT #RODNEY

    JAN 01, 2018

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Rodney Brooks
    “Electric car sales in the US make up essentially 100% of the sales. NET 2038.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction is considered "evolving" because while the target date of 2038 has not yet arrived, current sales figures (8.9% in Q3 2024) and updated assessments by the predictor himself indicate that the 100% target is highly unlikely to be met, with even a more modest 30% by 2027 now "at risk"[1][2].

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    rodneybrooks.com
    electric-vehicles

    RECEIPT #RODNEY

    JAN 01, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Rodney Brooks
    “Electric cars hit 30% of US car sales. NET 2027.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    As of Q3 2024, US electric vehicle sales reached only 8.9%. Brooks updated on Jan 1, 2025: 'There is no way it can reach 30% in 2027. I was way too optimistic.'

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    rodneybrooks.com
    electric-vehicles