The short version

Krystal Scanlon predicted on February 10, 2026: “TikTok Shop GMV will grow but the platform's ad revenue from non-Shop brands will slow noticeably in early 2026 as creators chase commerce dollars.” Verdict: Partially right. TikTok Shop US GMV did grow ~30% in Q1 2026 per Bloomberg, but brand-ad slowdown was less pronounced than predicted — only a few CPG categories…

Prediction by

Krystal Scanlon

On February 10, 2026

“TikTok Shop GMV will grow but the platform's ad revenue from non-Shop brands will slow noticeably in early 2026 as creators chase commerce dollars.”

Follow-up

TikTok Shop US GMV did grow ~30% in Q1 2026 per Bloomberg, but brand-ad slowdown was less pronounced than predicted — only a few CPG categories cited it explicitly on Q1 calls.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.