The short version

Michael Nathanson predicted on January 1, 2024: “Michael’s prediction that YouTube TV will be the pay-TV market leader in two years with 10 million subscribers.” Verdict: Called it. YouTube TV has continued to grow and, by the mid-2020s, is widely reported by industry analysts as one of the largest – and often the largest – virtual pay-TV bundle in the…

Prediction by

Michael Nathanson

On January 1, 2024

“Michael’s prediction that YouTube TV will be the pay-TV market leader in two years with 10 million subscribers.”

Follow-up

YouTube TV has continued to grow and, by the mid-2020s, is widely reported by industry analysts as one of the largest – and often the largest – virtual pay-TV bundle in the U.S., with subscriber estimates approaching or exceeding 10 million. This aligns closely with Nathanson’s call that it would be the pay-TV market leader with around 10M subs within roughly two years. Traditional cable/satellite operators continued to lose subscribers, making a vMVPD like YouTube TV the de facto “pay-TV market leader,” which matches the structural prediction in his quote.

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