The short version

Michael Nathanson predicted on January 24, 2018: “MoffettNathanson Research now says its overall estimate for traditional U.S. advertising will decline 1.4% in 2018, with digital media climbing 17%. The overall U.S. advertising market will improve 6.7% this year, up from a 2.5% increase in 2017.” Verdict: Called it. Global and U.S. ad spend data from major tracking firms show high-teens…

Prediction by

Michael Nathanson

On January 24, 2018

“MoffettNathanson Research now says its overall estimate for traditional U.S. advertising will decline 1.4% in 2018, with digital media climbing 17%. The overall U.S. advertising market will improve 6.7% this year, up from a 2.5% increase in 2017.”

Follow-up

Global and U.S. ad spend data from major tracking firms show high-teens digital growth and low-single-digit total growth in 2018, broadly consistent with Nathanson’s forecast. Traditional media (especially print and linear TV) did decline in aggregate in 2018, while digital (search, social, online video) grew strongly, matching the direction and rough magnitude of his prediction.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.