The short version

Simona Gambarini predicted on January 1, 2026: “By contrast, the ECB may well stay on hold for an extended period, with any further cut requiring a clear catalyst such as a material downside growth surprise or a sharp euro appreciation. While not our base case, if the recovery were to gain traction, rate hikes could return to the discussion in…

Prediction by

Simona Gambarini

On January 1, 2026

“By contrast, the ECB may well stay on hold for an extended period, with any further cut requiring a clear catalyst such as a material downside growth surprise or a sharp euro appreciation. While not our base case, if the recovery were to gain traction, rate hikes could return to the discussion in the second half of 2026.”

Follow-up

Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.