— Topic —

    Geopolitics

    3 receipts tracked • 50% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    3 receipts on Geopolitics

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    RECEIPT #ARI-PA

    DEC 01, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    TikTok didn't get banned, but it will be controlled by a US entity.

    FOLLOW-UP

    TikTok has not been fully banned in the U.S., consistent with the first part of the prediction. However, it has not definitively been transferred to control by a U.S. entity as of mid-2026. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing negotiations but no final structure matching his prediction.

    RECEIPT #SCOTT-

    MAY 18, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Scott Galloway
    He believes TikTok will be divested to American interests due to its security risks, and he sees a bright future for companies involved in GLP‑1 drugs.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Regulatory pressure increased in line with his security framing, but an actual divestiture to American interests had not occurred within the forecast window (as of early 2025).

    RECEIPT #SCOTT-

    JAN 05, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Scott Galloway
    India Is the New China. In 2023, India became the world’s most populous country. In 2024 that population growth will register in economic terms.

    FOLLOW-UP

    India’s economic and strategic importance to global technology and media firms increased and became more visible in 2024, in line with his “register in economic terms” prediction. However, India has not “replaced” China in global manufacturing or consumer markets; the phrase “new China” is rhetorical rather than literal.