The short version

Ari Paparo's prediction, paraphrased from the linked source (October 6, 2024): Paparo estimated a 75% chance that Google would be forced to spin out DFP as an outcome of its ad tech antitrust case. Verdict: Missed it. Paparo gave a 75% estimate that Google would be forced to spin out DFP as a remedy in the ad tech antitrust case.…

Prediction by

Ari Paparo

On October 6, 2024

Paraphrase: Paparo estimated a 75% chance that Google would be forced to spin out DFP as an outcome of its ad tech antitrust case.

Follow-up

Paparo gave a 75% estimate that Google would be forced to spin out DFP as a remedy in the ad tech antitrust case. Judge Brinkema's remedies opinion, unsealed September 16, 2026, refused the government's structural remedies, including a contingent DFP divestiture, and ordered behavioral remedies instead. DFP and AdX remain together. Appeals remain possible, but the court's remedy did not match his forecast.

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