The short version

Ari Paparo predicted on October 6, 2024: “It’s quite easy actually to just spin out DFP, the problem is solved. I think it’s very possible that will be the outcome. I would say 75% is my current estimate.” Verdict: Missed it. Paparo put a 75% probability on Google spinning out DFP (Google Ad Manager). It has not happened: the DOJ…

Prediction by

Ari Paparo

On October 6, 2024

“It’s quite easy actually to just spin out DFP, the problem is solved. I think it’s very possible that will be the outcome. I would say 75% is my current estimate.”

Follow-up

Paparo put a 75% probability on Google spinning out DFP (Google Ad Manager). It has not happened: the DOJ ad-tech remedies phase ran through 2025 with closing arguments in November 2025 and the judge signaling hesitancy to order divestiture, and as of mid-2026 GAM remains inside Google.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.