The short version

Ben Thompson predicted on December 19, 2024: “Rapidus, Japan’s new foundry on the leading edge, doesn’t make economic sense; it is one of many examples in that regard, as the world enters a new age of uncertainty and AI.” Verdict: Called it. Rapidus has continued to receive heavy state support and partnership commitments but no commercial-scale leading-edge production is yet…

Prediction by

Ben Thompson

On December 19, 2024

“Rapidus, Japan’s new foundry on the leading edge, doesn’t make economic sense; it is one of many examples in that regard, as the world enters a new age of uncertainty and AI.”

Follow-up

Rapidus has continued to receive heavy state support and partnership commitments but no commercial-scale leading-edge production is yet online, and there is no clear path to market-rate profitability. This aligns with Thompson's characterization that it's motivated more by strategic than economic logic. Globally, governments have increased non-market-driven subsidies for AI chips and fabs, reflecting the "end of economic rationality" in strategic sectors.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.