RECEIPT #BEN-TH
DEC 19, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Ben Thompson“Rapidus, Japan’s new foundry on the leading edge, doesn’t make economic sense; it is one of many examples in that regard, as the world enters a new age of uncertainty and AI.”
FOLLOW-UP
Rapidus has continued to receive heavy state support and partnership commitments but no commercial-scale leading-edge production is yet online, and there is no clear path to market-rate profitability. This aligns with Thompson's characterization that it's motivated more by strategic than economic logic. Globally, governments have increased non-market-driven subsidies for AI chips and fabs, reflecting the "end of economic rationality" in strategic sectors.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Stratechery 2024 index page (summarizing articles)