We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    Ad Revenue

    4 receipts tracked • 25% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    4 receipts on Ad Revenue

    Browse all →

    RECEIPT #MOFFET

    JAN 01, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    MoffettNathanson
    “MoffettNathanson predicted that YouTube would experience more subscription revenue growth than ad revenue growth in the coming years. Also: MoffettNathanson's forward projections suggest that subscription revenue growth will outpace advertising growth through 2027 and 2028.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction spans through 2028; it's too early to provide a definitive verdict, although early indications in 2025 were positive for subscription growth.

    ad-revenuesubscription-revenueyoutube

    RECEIPT #MICHAE

    DEC 01, 2024

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Michael Nathanson
    “Connected TV (CTV) will continue to gain in years to come -- $19 billion (in 2026) and $22 billion (in 2027, averaging a 16% hike over a three-year period).”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction clearly failed when projections from eMarketer, IAB, and StackAdapt all estimated ~$38 billion in U.S. CTV ad spend for 2026, significantly higher than Nathanson's $19 billion forecast.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    mediapost.com
    ad-revenueconnected-tv-ctv

    RECEIPT #MICHAE

    DEC 01, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Michael Nathanson
    “Future linear core TV advertising revenues will continue to decline by 6% to 8% for the next two years... For 2025, total linear core TV ad revenues are expected to land at $55.2 billion, slipping 7% from 2024. They are projected to decline another 6% to $51.6 billion [in 2026] and to drop 8% to $47.9 billion in 2027.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Michael Nathanson's 2025 forecast of $55.2 billion in linear core TV ad revenues was confirmed by multiple reports; however, the 2026 projection remains unresolved due to a lack of full-year data, with early Q3 2025 data suggesting potential stabilization.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    mediapost.com
    ad-revenuelinear-tv

    RECEIPT #MOFFET

    JAN 01, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    MoffettNathanson
    “The research firm still expects ad revenue to grow at a rate of about 10% over the next three years.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The stated three-year period is still ongoing, and specific growth rates for 2026-2028 are not yet verifiable.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    entrepreneur.com
    ad-revenueyoutube