The short version

Brian Wieser predicted on March 18, 2025: ““We have a lot of non-zero probability of really, really terrible outcomes,” he said. “And no evidence that I’ve seen suggests an extreme upside.”” Verdict: Still evolving. Macro and political uncertainties continued to weigh on advertiser sentiment, consistent with Wieser's depiction of meaningful downside risk and lack of clear 'extreme upside' signals. However,…

Prediction by

Brian Wieser

On March 18, 2025

““We have a lot of non-zero probability of really, really terrible outcomes,” he said. “And no evidence that I’ve seen suggests an extreme upside.””

Follow-up

Macro and political uncertainties continued to weigh on advertiser sentiment, consistent with Wieser's depiction of meaningful downside risk and lack of clear 'extreme upside' signals. However, 'really, really terrible outcomes' had not materialized as of the latest available data, with ad spending continuing to grow modestly. The prediction describes probabilities that remain plausible but are still untested against full-cycle outcomes through 2030.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.