The short version

Brian Wieser predicted on April 21, 2024: “This increase does not take into account political advertising, which **Wieser anticipates will total $15.5 billion across all platforms**.” Verdict: Partially right. Wieser forecast $15.5B in 2024 US political ad spending "across all platforms" on his own model's scope, consistent with his in-scope 2020 baseline of $14.1B (GroupM's December 2020 estimate). The tracked-buys…

Prediction by

Brian Wieser

On April 21, 2024

“This increase does not take into account political advertising, which **Wieser anticipates will total $15.5 billion across all platforms**.”

Follow-up

Wieser forecast $15.5B in 2024 US political ad spending "across all platforms" on his own model's scope, consistent with his in-scope 2020 baseline of $14.1B (GroupM's December 2020 estimate). The tracked-buys total measured by AdImpact came in at ~$11B (NBC News, Nov 2024) - a narrower scope (AdImpact's 2020 figure was $9B vs GroupM's $14B for the same cycle), so the two measures are not directly comparable and the call cannot be cleanly judged against the tracked total. Directionally he was right that 2024 would set a record on his scope.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.