The short version

Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf predicted on March 18, 2024: “Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet-owned Google will attract almost two-thirds of US digital ad dollars in 2024, according to our forecast.” Verdict: Partially right. The forecast was directionally accurate but slightly optimistic. eMarketer's year-end 2024 update (published January 2025) reported these five companies captured 64.1% of US digital ad spend ($192.5B total…

Prediction by

Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf

On March 18, 2024

“Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet-owned Google will attract almost two-thirds of US digital ad dollars in 2024, according to our forecast.”

Follow-up

The forecast was directionally accurate but slightly optimistic. eMarketer's year-end 2024 update (published January 2025) reported these five companies captured 64.1% of US digital ad spend ($192.5B total market), close to the "almost two-thirds" (66.7%) implied. Actual Q4 2024 data from Standard Media Index and IAB confirmed Google (28.5%), Meta (21.2%), Amazon (13.1%), with Apple/Microsoft adding ~1.3% combined, totaling ~64%. Minor downward revisions occurred due to slower Amazon growth (12.8% vs. forecast 14%).

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