Big Tech

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Under a Democratic administration, antitrust cases and scrutiny against large tech firms intensified. However, as of mid-2026, no actual structural breakup of any leading U.S. big tech company has occurred. The phrase 'beginning of the breakup' can be interpreted as the start of serious antitrust processes, which have intensified but no formal breakups have been implemented yet. This is evolving.

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The prediction is made for 2026, so it's too early to judge.

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Reasonable call that Alphabet would remain a core AI winner, but incorrect if understood as the standout stock of the cycle.

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Through 2024 and 2025, AI leadership consolidated around large companies with massive capex capabilities. Many smaller SaaS companies partnered with these giants for AI infrastructure. Large platforms integrated AI copilots, often bundling them and putting pricing pressure on point solutions. Narrow SaaS tools faced increased competition from suite vendors, making it harder for single-feature SaaS to stand out. This supports the directional claim that AI favors integrated tech giants. While some specialized SaaS companies have found niches, the market structure is generally aligned with the prediction.

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Alphabet had strong returns in 2024 but was significantly outperformed by Nvidia, making the prediction of it being *the* top pick incorrect among the Magnificent 7.

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The forecast was directionally accurate but slightly optimistic. eMarketer's year-end 2024 update (published January 2025) reported these five companies captured 64.1% of US digital ad spend ($192.5B total market), close to the "almost two-thirds" (66.7%) implied. Actual Q4 2024 data from Standard Media Index and IAB confirmed Google (28.5%), Meta (21.2%), Amazon (13.1%), with Apple/Microsoft adding ~1.3% combined, totaling ~64%. Minor downward revisions occurred due to slower Amazon growth (12.8% vs. forecast 14%).