The short version

Jason Kilar predicted on March 4, 2021: “Only a handful of major streaming services "can ultimately get to scale, defined by hundreds of millions of paying subscribers around the world" - "Less than six."” Verdict: Called it. Five years on, the count is not just under six - it is basically one. Netflix passed 325 million paying members in Q1…

Prediction by

Jason Kilar

On March 4, 2021

“Only a handful of major streaming services "can ultimately get to scale, defined by hundreds of millions of paying subscribers around the world" - "Less than six."”

Follow-up

Five years on, the count is not just under six - it is basically one. Netflix passed 325 million paying members in Q1 2026; Disney+ stopped disclosing at 132 million (fiscal Q4 2025); Amazon's 315 million figure is Prime Video ad-tier viewers, not paying subscribers. The shakeout Kilar called played out through mergers, bundles and retreats.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.