The short version

Michael Nathanson predicted on January 1, 2023: “…you’ve not yet seen the impact of Netflix which will come. So Netflix will take dollars out of the ecosystem; they’re looking at three billion or so in a couple years’ time — that’s going to…” Verdict: Called it. After launching its ad-supported tier in late 2022, Netflix’s ad business grew steadily but…

Prediction by

Michael Nathanson

On January 1, 2023

“…you’ve not yet seen the impact of Netflix which will come. So Netflix will take dollars out of the ecosystem; they’re looking at three billion or so in a couple years’ time — that’s going to…”

Follow-up

After launching its ad-supported tier in late 2022, Netflix’s ad business grew steadily but from a small base, attracting budgets from brand advertisers and shifting spend away from other video platforms; industry estimates by 2025 place Netflix ad revenues in the low-single-digit billions of dollars, broadly consistent with his “three billion or so in a couple years’ time” directional forecast. That growth reflects exactly what he described: new advertising dollars flowing to Netflix and/or being reallocated from other parts of the video ad ecosystem.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.