Netflix

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After launching its ad-supported tier in late 2022, Netflix’s ad business grew steadily but from a small base, attracting budgets from brand advertisers and shifting spend away from other video platforms; industry estimates by 2025 place Netflix ad revenues in the low-single-digit billions of dollars, broadly consistent with his “three billion or so in a couple years’ time” directional forecast. That growth reflects exactly what he described: new advertising dollars flowing to Netflix and/or being reallocated from other parts of the video ad ecosystem.

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TikTok’s share of global digital ad spend and user time continued to rise through 2024, competing directly with OTT/streaming and music platforms for both user attention and brand budgets. Long-form streamers and audio platforms increased investment in short-form & social promotion. The prediction is qualitatively borne out: TikTok more aggressively competed for attention and ad dollars traditionally targeted at Netflix/Spotify’s spaces.

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TikTok continued to function as a direct competitor for entertainment time with Netflix/Spotify, and its recommendation engine remained central to that shift in media consumption.