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    Filed September 20, 2026

    Missed it.

    The short version

    Nate Silver predicted on June 29, 2016: “She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.” Verdict: Missed it. Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 79% chance of winning the 2016 US Presidential election against Donald…

    Prediction by

    Nate Silver

    On June 29, 2016

    “She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”

    Follow-up

    Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 79% chance of winning the 2016 US Presidential election against Donald Trump. Donald Trump ultimately won the election.

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