The short version

Ari Paparo predicted on October 6, 2024: ““It’s very possible and it’s also a clean outcome… it’s quite easy actually just spin out DFP, the problem is solved. Um and I think it’s very possible that will be the outcome, uh I would say 75% is my current estimate.”” Verdict: Missed it. Paparo put a 75% probability on Google being…

Prediction by

Ari Paparo

On October 6, 2024

““It’s very possible and it’s also a clean outcome… it’s quite easy actually just spin out DFP, the problem is solved. Um and I think it’s very possible that will be the outcome, uh I would say 75% is my current estimate.””

Follow-up

Paparo put a 75% probability on Google being forced to spin out DFP. In September 2026, the court rejected structural divestiture of DFP or AdX and imposed behavioral remedies instead, so the forecast missed the remedy selected in the case.

From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.