Receipt
Filed July 22, 2026
The short version
Ben Thompson predicted on October 29, 2024: “I realize now, though, that I was distracted by Meta AI: the real impact of AI is to make everything inventory, which is to say that the price-per-ad on Meta will approach $0 for basically forever.” Verdict: Called it. Meta's ad impressions have grown, and average ad prices have been flat to down…
Prediction by
Ben Thompson
On October 29, 2024
“I realize now, though, that I was distracted by Meta AI: the real impact of AI is to make everything inventory, which is to say that the price-per-ad on Meta will approach $0 for basically forever.”
Follow-up
Meta's ad impressions have grown, and average ad prices have been flat to down by mid-2026, aligning with Thompson's prediction that AI increases ad inventory, driving down ad prices. While prices haven't hit $0 literally, the trend supports his 'asymptotic claim' that marginal prices trend lower due to abundant AI-created inventory.
Original source
Stratechery (paid newsletter, public excerpt page exists)From the High Caliber AI network — see the AI for PR module in the course.