Media

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The streaming market saw increased bundling, price hikes, and consolidation through 2024-2026. However, no major global streaming service fully 'shut down' in the sense of disappearing entirely by mid-2026, though smaller niche services were absorbed or restructured. The consolidation trend was correct, but the specific outcome of a major shutdown was not clearly realized.

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Similar to the previous TikTok prediction, later summaries continued to treat this as a live 2024 thesis, but the supplied results do not contain a definitive outcome report establishing how much pressure, if any, materialized by year-end 2024. The outcome is still developing.

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Based only on the supplied results, there is no verification that any major streaming service actually shut down in 2024. Therefore, the outcome remains unverified from the available materials. The outcome is still developing.

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This prediction is evolving and will take time to fully assess. While human connection remains vital, the extent to which AI 'slop' or 'masterpieces' will challenge or redefine 'important mediums' is still being determined by June 2026.

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Meta's financial reports and industry commentary (2024-2025) confirm strong ad revenue growth attributed to AI-driven tools, aligning with Thompson's endorsement of AI enhancing Meta's top line through advertising.

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Meta's financial reports and industry commentary (2024-2025) confirm strong ad revenue growth attributed to AI-driven tools, aligning with Thompson's prediction of AI enhancing ad performance through prediction and generation.

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Industry commentary and publisher strategies in 2024-2026 supported the idea that real-time, verified news and financial information increased in relative value amid AI-generated content, with publishers investing in direct audience relationships.

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A wave of licensing and partnership agreements occurred between AI/search companies (including Google and Perplexity) and news publishers, both large and small, in 2024-2025, matching the predicted direction and timing.

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Hollywood has faced continued struggles, while sports, TikTok, Netflix, and generative AI have strengthened their roles.

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Consolidation and rebundling trends are directionally accurate, but no major streaming service has fully shut down.

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2024 saw significant layoffs, financial stress, and consolidation within institutional media, consistent with a "horrible year" for the sector.

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2024-2026 saw the continued rise of creator-led brands, influencer-driven commerce, and personality-driven media. This includes direct-to-consumer brands by creators, and platforms where individual personalities are stronger draws than corporate brands. The observable trajectory of marketing budgets aligns with the thesis that 'people are the new brands.'

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By 2025-mid-2026, YouTube solidified its role as a central video and creator platform, becoming a leading platform for podcast distribution and consumption, and showing strong growth in Connected TV (CTV) ad dollars. Podcasts continued to grow as an ad-supported medium with high engagement. This prediction has been substantially borne out, with YouTube's centrality to video, streaming, and podcast advertising widely acknowledged.

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TikTok's share of attention and marketing budgets increased, becoming a more central video platform. However, streaming services continued to grow subscribers and ad revenue, particularly via ad-supported tiers. The prediction was directionally right about competitive pressure, but without clear share-loss or structural damage to Netflix/Spotify's core businesses.

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TikTok has moved closer into Spotify's lane through music features and programming, and rolled out TikTok Music in some markets. However, Spotify remains the leading global music streaming subscription service, and TikTok has not yet become a full-scale direct replacement or equal competitor to Spotify’s core subscription model.

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No major, widely recognized subscription video streaming service has fully 'shut down' and disappeared from the market in 2024 as of mid-2026. Several have rebranded, merged catalogs, or been folded into bundles, but they continue to operate. Smaller niche streamers have struggled or been quietly absorbed, but there is no documented case of a significant consumer-facing streaming platform that clearly 'closed down' in 2024 in the sense implied by his prediction (an outright shutdown rather than consolidation or rebranding).

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No major, widely recognized subscription video streaming service has fully 'shut down' and disappeared from the market in 2024 as of mid-2026. Several have rebranded, merged catalogs, or been folded into bundles, but they continue to operate. Smaller niche streamers have struggled or been quietly absorbed, but there is no documented case of a significant consumer-facing streaming platform that clearly 'closed down' in 2024 in the sense implied by his prediction (an outright shutdown rather than consolidation or rebranding).

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Meta's ad impressions have grown, and average ad prices have been flat to down by mid-2026, aligning with Thompson's prediction that AI increases ad inventory, driving down ad prices. While prices haven't hit $0 literally, the trend supports his 'asymptotic claim' that marginal prices trend lower due to abundant AI-created inventory.

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As of mid-2026, there is no public evidence of a specific, comparable acquisition or investment by NBCU or Disney in a large creator studio like Mythical Entertainment.

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While the trend of streaming consolidation and rebundling was accurate, no major global streaming service (e.g., Netflix, Disney+, Max) completely shut down in 2024. There were restructurings, rebrandings, and mergers, but not outright shutdowns of leading platforms.

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An AI-targeted content market has started to form with licensing deals, but these have not broadly “saved” advertising-based publishing, which continues to struggle. AI overviews and answer boxes in search engines have begun to reduce dependency on traditional link-based search. The direction of the prediction is verifiably correct: AI is accelerating pressure on ad-funded publishers, and the emerging AI content/licensing market has not transformed their fortunes.

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By mid-2026, the value of live, shared experiences, especially in sports and entertainment, has indeed continued to escalate. Sports rights fees and brand sponsorship for live events have increased significantly, and even education emphasizes live, cohort-based learning, supporting Thompson's prediction that "everything 'live' will become more valuable" in an era of abundant AI-generated content.

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The media landscape is continually evolving with new technologies like AI maturing and reaching broader adoption, suggesting an ongoing 'inflection point' consistent with the prediction.

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The prediction that journalistic enterprises are 'doomed' in their traditional role is supported by ongoing economic pressures and layoffs in newsrooms. A 'market mechanism for data generation' is partially emerging through licensing deals and creator programs, but it has not yet reached the standardization or scale of a 'large market like YouTube' as of mid-2026, indicating it is still early and unfolding.

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Through 2025–mid-2026, YouTube has become a central platform for podcasts, with many shows distributing full video episodes and clips there, and YouTube’s own “podcast” category and features expanding. Several large podcast producers have reported YouTube as their largest single distribution channel by reach, aligning with Galloway’s characterization.

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This prediction is about 2025, which is still unfolding. Current trends confirm YouTube's increasing dominance as a podcast platform, suggesting strong directional accuracy.

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This prediction is about 2025, which is still unfolding. However, the existing trends towards increased podcast consumption and advertising revenue suggest strong directionality.

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TikTok continued to pressure Netflix in terms of attention and advertising budgets, but Spotify was not sold to any Western investor during or immediately after the forecast period.

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TikTok's share of U.S. digital ad spend grew materially through 2024 and into 2025, and it continued to dominate short-form video ad budgets and youth attention, competing with Netflix and Spotify.

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Podcast reiterates and amplifies the same prediction set; accuracy assessment matches the written versions.

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By 2025, surveys and industry reports indicate roughly half of US adults reported listening to a podcast in the past month. Advertisers continue to shift brand budgets into podcasting. Podcasting is strongly aligned with observed trends as one of the most strategically important media formats for both creators and advertisers.

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Many open-web publishers have resorted to increased ad load and AI-generated content, and bot traffic remains an issue. The shift to logged-in environments further validates the open internet's relative decline.

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YouTube solidified its role as a dominant podcast distribution platform throughout 2025, with many major shows prioritizing its presence. Advertisers and creators increasingly viewed it as a primary platform for long-form content, aligning with the prediction.

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While consolidation discussions intensified, wholesale acquisitions of major standalone streaming services were limited and slower than 'any streaming service...to be acquired in the coming year.' The industry saw more incremental moves like joint ventures and content sharing rather than sweeping M&A.

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Generative AI tools have made highly individualized content cheap and fast to create. Concurrently, there has been increasing advertiser and platform emphasis on live, shared experiences, such as live sports, tent-pole events, and creator-driven livestreams, and experiential marketing. Industry analysis consistently positions shared experiences as a counterweight to the commoditization of generic, algorithmically personalized content.

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Throughout 2024-2025, the Hollywood ecosystem continued to experience struggles such as profitability pressures, restructurings, and cautious content spending, aligning with Galloway's prediction.

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Largely aligned with current trends; YouTube is indeed a primary growth platform for podcast-like content and a key channel for marketers in 2025.

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TikTok's usage has expanded into longer-form content and music, encroaching on traditional entertainment time. It remains a significant music discovery engine, and while Netflix and Spotify still dominate their core areas, TikTok is a major rival for marginal entertainment minutes.

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This 'attention market' framing has been reflected in how marketers allocate cross-platform video and creator budgets, with TikTok being benchmarked against CTV and traditional streaming. Both Netflix and Spotify expanded ad-supported models, demonstrating competition for overlapping ad dollars and attention, aligning with the prediction.

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TikTok's global usage and time spent continued to grow, directly competing with Netflix and Spotify. Netflix and Spotify faced slowing growth, while TikTok expanded into longer-form content and music discovery, indicating a shift in attention and consistent with the prediction.

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Big Technology continues to operate as a multi-platform media property, using YouTube and AI tools. Broader trends in independent media and creator businesses validate the use of AI tools and YouTube as growth channels.